A target with a year attached is guidance.

We lock a binary: Turners Automotive Group's reported normalised net profit before tax for fiscal 2027 is NZ$58m or higher. Confidence 91%.

The company's FY2027 target is NZ$65m. Our threshold sits NZ$7m, about 10.8%, below it — and NZ$5.2m, about 8.2%, below the NZ$63.2m already banked in FY2026. The lock does not require Turners to hit its target. It requires that a record year not give back a twelfth.

At P-327 last tranche this series refused to anchor on Hero MotoCorp's 14-16% EBITDA margin band, because management described it as a MEDIUM-TERM target rather than FY2027 guidance. That was the right call. But stated baldly, the rule sounded like the word target disqualifies a number, and that is not what makes the difference.

Turners calls NZ$65m a profit target too. The difference is that it names a financial year. The figure was originally set for FY2028, and the strength of FY2026 pulled it forward INTO FY2027, where the company has since held it. A specific number attached to a specific twelve months is a commitment a company can be measured against, whatever label sits on it.

Hero's 14-16% named no horizon at all. There was no year against which to score it, which is precisely why it could not anchor a lock.

So the test this series will apply from here is: does the figure name a period? Standard Bank, at P-338 in this same tranche, carries both kinds in one set of results — explicit guidance for the 12 months to 31 December 2026, alongside separate medium-term targets running through 2028. That lock anchors on the first and ignores the second.

The FY2026 result was broad rather than narrow: normalised NPBT rose 16% to NZ$63.2m with all three core divisions growing, and the fourth quarter was itself a record. The dividend rose 14% to 33 cents. And NZ$65m for FY2027 would be the third successive multi-year target the group has met or exceeded ahead of schedule — a track record that is itself evidence about how these targets are set.

Against that, the company held the FY2027 target while explicitly flagging mounting market risks, and has set a further NZ$100m target for FY2031. Turners sells used vehicles and writes finance and insurance against them, which places it directly on New Zealand household credit conditions: vehicle demand, loan arrears and insurance claims all move with the consumer cycle.

The buffer at 8.2% below the banked actual answers that. It is wider than the 4-5% a contracted-revenue business would justify and narrower than the 11.9% taken for Freightways at P-315, which actively warned that demand stays softer for longer. Turners flagged risk while reaffirming a number; Freightways published no number and warned. The treatment differs accordingly.

The residual 9% is a New Zealand consumer credit deterioration hitting vehicle volumes and finance arrears together.