91% probability Vulcan Steel's FY2027 adjusted EBITDA reaches at least NZ$120m, after NZ$130m in FY2026. FY2027 gets a full twelve months of Roofing Industries against nine, and steel volumes grew about 20% in the second half.
Vulcan Steel reported FY2026 adjusted EBITDA up 16% to NZ$130m, including the impact of Roofing Industries from 1 October, and lifted net profit 22% to NZ$18m on higher sales. Volume growth was the main driver of the profit improvement, contributing NZ$61m, with steel volumes growing about 20% in the second half as the business benefited from both market recovery and share gains. Management expects continued growth in FY2027, supported by hybrid site expansion, Roofing Industries and improving market conditions, and expects continued volume growth supported by a full twelve months of Roofing Industries contribution in FY2027 against nine months in FY2026. Capital expenditure is expected to rise to NZ$30m to NZ$35m in FY2027. Source: Vulcan Steel FY2026 annual results.
We lock a binary: Vulcan Steel's reported adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2027 is NZ$120m or higher. Confidence 91%.
No numeric FY2027 EBITDA guidance was published. FY2026 adjusted EBITDA was NZ$130m, so our threshold sits NZ$10m — about 7.7% — below the banked actual. That is a narrower buffer than most no-guidance locks in this series carry, and one structural fact is the reason.
Vulcan acquired Roofing Industries and consolidated it from 1 October, which means FY2026 captured nine months of it. FY2027 captures twelve. That is three additional months of a business the company already owns, already operates and has already reported the economics of — not a projection, an arithmetic consequence of the calendar.
Most level-anchored locks in this series have to assume a business merely repeats. This one has a known tailwind sitting inside the comparison, which is why the buffer is 7.7% rather than the 11.9% taken for Freightways at P-315 or the 17.4% for SkyCity at P-323, both of which had no such support.
The underlying trading direction points the same way. Volume growth contributed NZ$61m to the FY2026 improvement, and steel volumes grew about 20% in the second half on both market recovery and share gains — so the year exited stronger than it averaged. Management expects continued growth, supported by hybrid site expansion and improving conditions.
Vulcan's FY2026 produced NZ$130m of adjusted EBITDA and NZ$18m of net profit. The gap is more than seven-eighths of the number, and it is structural rather than exceptional: metals distribution runs on inventory, property and vehicle fleets, so depreciation, lease charges and interest consume most of the operating margin.
That makes net profit a badly behaved line to lock. A NZ$18m base is small enough that an ordinary movement in interest costs or a single inventory revaluation can swing it by a quarter, without saying anything about the trading performance. EBITDA at NZ$130m is roughly seven times larger and correspondingly less sensitive to any one input.
The criterion therefore names ADJUSTED EBITDA, on the same basis as the NZ$130m comparative, and rules out net profit in terms. Capital expenditure guided at NZ$30-35m for FY2027 is also excluded — it is a cash outflow, not an earnings measure, and appears in the criterion only to be ruled out.
The residual 9% is a reversal in New Zealand construction and manufacturing demand deep enough to outweigh the extra Roofing Industries quarter, or steel price deflation compressing distribution margins on inventory bought higher.
RAOSCAFF locks P-332 on 2026-09-03, before the FY2027 result. Scored against adjusted EBITDA as reported by Vulcan Steel for the year to 30 June 2027.
Three more months of a business it already owns is arithmetic, not a forecast. That is why this buffer is 7.7% and SkyCity's was 17.4%.