90% probability Meta Platforms Q2 2026 total revenue is ≥$58.0B — the company's own guidance floor. Q1 2026 printed $56.31B (+33% YoY); the $58B floor requires only ~+3% QoQ. Meta has rarely missed its own guidance low end.
Meta Q1 2026 8-K: Q2 2026 guidance $58–61B. Q1 2026 total revenue $56.31B (+33% YoY) with ~2% FX tailwind. Floor $58.0B = +3.0% QoQ on Q1 actual. Source: Meta Q2 2026 press release / 8-K (investor.atmeta.com + SEC EDGAR).
We lock a binary claim: Meta Platforms Q2 2026 total revenue (as reported in the Q2 2026 earnings press release / 8-K) is ≥$58,000,000,000. Confidence 90%. This is the company's own guidance floor — not a stretch target.
Meta guided Q2 2026 to $58–61B in its Q1 2026 8-K (investor.atmeta.com). Q1 2026 printed $56.31B (+33% YoY) with a ~2% FX tailwind; the $58B floor requires ~+3% QoQ — a conservative bar given Meta's advertising revenue momentum and engagement growth. Meta has not missed the low end of its own quarterly guidance in recent history. Resolves against the total revenue line in Meta's Q2 2026 press release or 8-K, expected ~Jul 29 2026.
RAOSCAFF locks P-34 on 2026-06-21, before Meta's Q2 2026 earnings. Resolves binary against the total revenue line in the official press release.
Floor call only — upside is open and not scored; we score strictly against the ≥$58.0B threshold.