91% probability Channel Infrastructure's FY2026 EBITDA reaches at least NZ$100m, against guidance of NZ$103-108m. Half one banked NZ$48.8m, so the lock needs a second half of at least NZ$51.2m from contracted storage revenue.
Channel Infrastructure reported HY26 revenue up 4% to NZ$72.9m and EBITDA of NZ$48.8m, and upgraded FY26 EBITDA guidance to NZ$103-108m from the May upgrade of NZ$97-105m, citing earlier commissioning of Z Energy jet storage, additional Government diesel storage revenue and greater visibility of fuel throughputs.
We lock a binary: Channel Infrastructure NZ's EBITDA for the year to 31 December 2026, as reported by the company, is NZ$100m or higher. Confidence 91%.
Guidance is NZ$103-108m. Our threshold sits NZ$3m below the floor and NZ$5.5m below the midpoint, and inside the NZ$97-105m range the company held before its August raise.
Half one delivered NZ$48.8m of EBITDA. To reach NZ$100m the second half needs NZ$51.2m. The raised guide implies NZ$54.2-59.2m for the half, so the threshold leaves roughly NZ$3-8m of room against management's own numbers.
The step up is contracted rather than hoped for. Government diesel storage completed in May and Z Energy jet storage began contributing in the second half; the company describes about half its revenue as take-or-pay, independent of fuel volumes. That is why the buffer is small: this is close to a regulated line, and a wide floor here would be decoration.
Guidance has been raised twice this year. Per the series rule, the lock anchors below the raise rather than on it: a freshly raised guide is the point of maximum management optimism and minimum elapsed proof.
At the half-year the company announced a US$5.95m sale and removal of its fully decommissioned CCR Platformer unit. If that proceeds lands inside reported EBITDA it would flatter the result by more than the margin this lock leaves. The criterion is EBITDA as the company reports it against its own guidance basis; if the company reports a figure excluding the sale, that guided-basis figure governs.
Correlation, disclosed: Channel's fuel throughput is exposed to the same West Asia fuel-price shock carried by P-85 and P-330. The take-or-pay storage contracts are the partial hedge, which is the reason the lock can sit this close to guidance at all.
RAOSCAFF locks P-346 on 2026-11-05, before the FY2026 result. Scored against EBITDA as reported by Channel Infrastructure NZ for the year to 31 December 2026.
Two raises in one year. The lock sits below both.