96% banked. The risk is the remainder.

91% probability Scales Corporation's FY2026 underlying NPATAS reaches at least NZ$54m, against guidance of NZ$55-60m. The first half banked NZ$52.0m, so the second half must clear NZ$2.0m in the seasonally weak half of an apple exporter's year.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-anchored, agribusiness Locked · 2026-11-05 · before the FY2026 result Resolves · ~2027-02-25 · Scales Corporation FY2026 results (NZX: SCL) Scored · binary: FY2026 Underlying NPATAS >= NZ$54m yes/no

Scales FY2026 underlying NPATAS · our locked floor

NZ$54m

full-year underlying NPATAS · vs NZ$55-60m guided

Scales Corporation reported 1H26 Underlying NPATAS of NZ$52.0m (1H25: NZ$48.8m), up 7 per cent, and its Directors advised an increase in the FY26 guidance range of Underlying Net Profit after Tax Attributable to Shareholders to between NZ$55.0m and NZ$60.0m.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Scales' FY2026 underlying NPATAS is at least NZ$54m — P = 0.91.

We lock a binary: Scales Corporation's FY2026 Underlying Net Profit after Tax Attributable to Shareholders, as the company defines it, is NZ$54m or higher. Confidence 91%.

Guidance was raised in August to NZ$55-60m. The threshold sits NZ$1m below the new floor, anchored below the raise per the series rule.

— 2 · A lock where almost everything is already banked

NZ$52.0m in the first half. NZ$2.0m needed in the second.

Scales earns most of its year in the first half, when the Mr Apple export season lands. The first half of 2026 produced NZ$52.0m of underlying NPATAS. Reaching NZ$54m needs only NZ$2.0m more, and the raised guide implies NZ$3.0-8.0m for the half.

That makes this an unusual shape for a lock: about 96% of the threshold is banked, and every bit of the risk sits in a small, volatile second half where pet-food ingredient margins, acquisition integration and final apple-pricing adjustments can turn a modest profit into a loss. A miss is conceivable, which is the test any threshold here must pass.

— 3 · Underlying, not reported

The gap between the two measures changes sign.

Scales publishes reported and underlying figures side by side, and the relationship between them is not stable: one-off acquisition accounting has pushed reported profit far above underlying in one year and below it in another. A lock on reported profit would be scoring an accounting event.

The criterion therefore names Underlying NPATAS on the guidance basis, including NZ IFRS 16 effects as the guidance does, and rules out reported NPATAS and group NPAT before minority interests.

Locked on 2026-11-05 — scored against Scales Corporation's reported FY2026 Underlying NPATAS.

RAOSCAFF locks P-347 on 2026-11-05, before the FY2026 result. Scored against Underlying NPATAS as reported by Scales Corporation for the year to 31 December 2026.

Locked: 2026-11-05 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2027-02-25 — Scales Corporation Limited FY2026 results
Source: Scales Corporation Limited FY2026 results media release and annual report (NZX: SCL; scalescorporation.co.nz investor centre)
Scored by: Binary: YES if FY2026 Underlying Net Profit after Tax Attributable to Shareholders (Underlying NPATAS), on the same basis as the NZ$55-60m guidance (including NZ IFRS 16 effects), is NZ$54m or greater; NO if below. Explicitly NOT reported NPATAS and NOT NPAT before minority interests.

Ninety-six percent banked. The forecast is about the other four.