Reported ran above underlying. We score underlying.

90% probability Sky Network Television's FY2027 underlying EBITDA reaches at least NZ$145m, against guidance of NZ$155-165m. FY2026 underlying EBITDA was NZ$157.0m while reported EBITDA was NZ$170.2m, lifted by one-off items.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-anchored, media Locked · 2026-11-05 · before the FY2027 result Resolves · ~2027-08-27 · Sky Network Television FY2027 results (NZX/ASX: SKT) Scored · binary: FY2027 EBITDA on the underlying guidance basis >= NZ$145m yes/no

Sky FY2027 underlying EBITDA · our locked floor

NZ$145m

full-year EBITDA ex one-offs · vs NZ$155-165m guided

Sky's FY27 guidance is for revenue of between NZ$825m and NZ$840m and EBITDA of between NZ$155m and NZ$165m, with guidance excluding one-off items. FY2026 EBITDA was NZ$157.0m on an underlying basis and NZ$170.2m reported.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Sky's FY2027 underlying EBITDA is at least NZ$145m — P = 0.90.

We lock a binary: Sky Network Television's EBITDA for the year to 30 June 2027, on the underlying basis its guidance uses, is NZ$145m or higher. Confidence 90%.

Guidance is NZ$155-165m. The threshold sits NZ$10m, about 6.5%, below the guidance floor, and NZ$12m below the NZ$157.0m delivered in FY2026.

— 2 · Why the buffer is wider than a utility's

An advertising cycle inside a subscription business.

Sky is now two businesses: a subscription pay-TV and streaming operator, and, since acquiring the former Discovery New Zealand free-to-air network, an advertising-funded broadcaster. Subscription revenue is sticky; advertising revenue is among the most cyclical lines in media.

Management itself has flagged that trading conditions are expected to remain challenging in the first half of FY2027. A 6.5% buffer below the guidance floor reflects that mix: wider than a regulated line, narrower than a pure advertising business, and capable of failing if the ad market and sports-rights costs both move against the company.

— 3 · The second case of the inverted gap

Reported NZ$170.2m, underlying NZ$157.0m. The lock names which.

Usually an adjusted measure flatters the reported one. At Sky in FY2026 it ran the other way: reported EBITDA of NZ$170.2m exceeded underlying EBITDA of NZ$157.0m, lifted by one-off items including a gain on the bargain purchase of the free-to-air business. Heartland (P-339) was the first time this series met reported profit above underlying; Sky is the second.

Because the guidance explicitly excludes one-off items, the criterion names EBITDA on that same underlying basis. A future one-off gain cannot rescue this lock, and a one-off charge cannot sink it.

Sky's annual meeting falls on 20 November 2026, after this lock. If guidance is restated there, the lock stands as written: it is a forecast made today, scored against what is reported for the year.

Locked on 2026-11-05 — scored against Sky's FY2027 EBITDA on its underlying guidance basis.

RAOSCAFF locks P-348 on 2026-11-05, before the FY2027 result. Scored against EBITDA excluding one-off items, as reported by Sky Network Television for the year to 30 June 2027.

Locked: 2026-11-05 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2027-08-27 — Sky Network Television Limited FY2027 results
Source: Sky Network Television FY2027 preliminary final report and results presentation (NZX/ASX: SKT)
Scored by: Binary: YES if FY2027 EBITDA on the underlying basis used for the NZ$155-165m guidance (excluding one-off items) is NZ$145m or greater; NO if below. Explicitly NOT reported EBITDA, which in FY2026 was NZ$170.2m against underlying NZ$157.0m. Not to be confused with SkyCity Entertainment (P-323).

Reported above underlying, for the second time. The criterion names the basis the guidance uses.