RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-349
Prediction Series · P-349

Lock the cases, not the currency.

90% probability Delegat Group's FY2027 global case sales reach at least 3.25 million, against a plan of 3.4 million and FY2026 sales of 3.32 million. The company's profit forecast moves with the US dollar and sterling; its case volume is what management actually plans.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-anchored, wine volume Locked · 2026-11-05 · before the FY2027 result Resolves · ~2027-08-27 · Delegat Group FY2027 results (NZX: DGL) Scored · binary: FY2027 global case sales >= 3.25 million yes/no
Delegat FY2027 global case sales · our locked floor
3.25m
cases · vs 3.4m planned

Delegat Group reported global case sales of 3,320,000 for the year ended 30 June 2026, up 4%. With respect to the 2027 year, Delegat plans for global sales of 3.4 million cases and forecasts Operating Net Profit after Tax in the range of NZ$62-66 million.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Delegat's FY2027 case sales are at least 3.25 million — P = 0.90.

We lock a binary: Delegat Group's global case sales for the year to 30 June 2027 are 3.25 million cases or more. Confidence 90%.

The plan is 3.4 million. The threshold sits about 4.4% below the plan and about 2.1% below the 3.32 million sold in FY2026, so a miss requires volume to fall year on year.

— 2 · Why cases and not profit

The profit forecast is an exchange-rate forecast.

Delegat also forecasts FY2027 Operating Net Profit after Tax of NZ$62-66m. That line is earned largely in US dollars, sterling and Australian dollars and reported in New Zealand dollars, so a material part of it is a currency outcome rather than a business outcome.

This series does not take price bets, and that rule binds for currencies exactly as it does for shares and commodities. The physical quantity, cases sold, is the part of the plan management decides. Same reasoning as Vale's tonnes, ONGC's barrels and Saudi Aramco's base dividend.

— 3 · What could make it fail

A short vintage, or a tariff.

Volume can be capped by supply as well as demand. The 2027 Marlborough harvest lands in March-May 2027, inside the fiscal year, and a short vintage limits what can be shipped. On the demand side, the United States is Delegat's largest market and tariff policy there can move orders.

The buffer is sized for that: narrow enough that a flat year passes and a falling year fails. Delegat's annual meeting on 3 December 2026 may update the plan; the lock stands as written.

Locked on 2026-11-05 — scored against Delegat Group's reported FY2027 global case sales.

RAOSCAFF locks P-349 on 2026-11-05, before the FY2027 result. Scored against global case sales as reported by Delegat Group for the year to 30 June 2027.

Locked
2026-11-05 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-08-27 — Delegat Group Limited FY2027 results
Source
Delegat Group Limited FY2027 full-year results and annual report (NZX: DGL; delegat.com investor information)
Scored by
Binary: YES if reported FY2027 global case sales are 3,250,000 cases or more; NO if below. Global case sales as the company reports them (the measure that was 3,320,000 in FY2026). Explicitly NOT Operating NPAT or reported NPAT.

Tonnes, barrels, dividends, and now cases. The price is never the lock.