The tonnes, not the zinc price.

We lock a binary: Hindustan Zinc's mined metal production for the year to 31 March 2027, as published in its production release, is 1,100 thousand tonnes or more. Confidence 91%.

Guidance is 1,150 kt plus or minus 10 kt. The threshold sits 40 kt, about 3.5%, below the bottom of that range: a narrow buffer, because mine output is a steady line.

Hindustan Zinc's profit is driven by zinc and silver prices, which this series does not forecast: a directional commodity call is a price bet whatever the disclaimer says. Production is what management controls and guides.

Same rule as Vale's tonnes, ONGC's barrels and BHP's iron ore. First zinc exposure in the series; the link to Novelis (P-342) through base metals is weak and is noted rather than claimed as independent.

The company guides two volumes: mined metal (1,150 kt) and refined metal (1,100 kt). They are different lines, and a threshold of 1,100 kt means something entirely different on each. The criterion names MINED metal content and rules out refined and saleable metal and silver.

The arithmetic: the first half banked 539 kt. Reaching 1,100 kt needs 561 kt in the second half, against 591 kt in the second half of FY2026, so the lock tolerates a year-on-year second-half decline of about 5%. The fourth quarter is the seasonal peak. It fails on a significant mine stoppage, a safety incident or a grade problem.