Below the guide, because the run rate is.

89% probability CreditAccess Grameen's AUM reaches at least INR 33,500 crore at 31 March 2027. Guidance of 20-25% growth implies at least INR 35,508 crore, but AUM grew only 4.6% in the first half; the lock forecasts the business, not the recovery plan.

Type · Prediction Lock · sub-guidance floor, microfinance Locked · 2026-11-05 · before the Q4 FY2027 result Resolves · ~2027-05-05 · CreditAccess Grameen Q4 FY2027 results (NSE: CREDITACC) Scored · binary: AUM at 31 Mar 2027 >= INR 33,500 crore yes/no

CreditAccess Grameen AUM at 31 March 2027 · our locked floor

INR 33,500cr

AUM · vs 20-25% growth guided on INR 29,590cr

CreditAccess Grameen reported AUM of INR 30,946 crore at the end of Q2 FY27, up 19.5% YoY and 2.1% QoQ, against INR 29,590 crore at the end of FY26, and its revised FY27 guidance retains AUM growth of 20.0-25.0%.

— 1 · The Locked Call

CreditAccess Grameen's AUM is at least INR 33,500 crore — P = 0.89.

We lock a binary: CreditAccess Grameen's assets under management at 31 March 2027, as reported by the company, are INR 33,500 crore or more. Confidence 89%.

That is growth of about 13.2% on INR 29,590 crore. Management's retained guidance of 20-25% growth implies at least INR 35,508 crore. The threshold sits about 5.7% below that floor.

— 2 · A sub-guidance floor

The plan needs acceleration. The lock needs continuation.

AUM grew from INR 29,590 crore to INR 30,946 crore in the first half: 4.6%. Hitting 20% for the year needs the second half to grow about 14.7%, roughly matching the strongest second half of recent years. The fourth quarter is microfinance's seasonal disbursement peak, so that is possible, but it is a recovery plan, not a run rate.

Per the series rule, when the run rate is below guidance the floor may sit below guidance. INR 33,500 crore needs about 8.3% second-half growth: a continuation of the business, not the plan landing on schedule. Same reasoning as Cipla (P-328) and JSW Steel (P-337).

— 3 · Why AUM, not profit

In microfinance, profit is a provisioning decision.

Microfinance profits swing on credit costs, which in turn swing on regulation and the rural cycle. A profit lock would score a provisioning decision. AUM is the operating line: it moves with disbursements and collections, not with how much the company chooses to reserve.

Correlation, disclosed: Bajaj Finance (P-220) and Muthoot (P-223) also carry Indian non-bank credit exposure, in different segments. It fails on a repeat of microfinance stress or tighter industry lending guardrails.

Locked on 2026-11-05 — scored against CreditAccess Grameen's reported AUM at 31 March 2027.

RAOSCAFF locks P-353 on 2026-11-05, before the Q4 FY2027 result. Scored against assets under management as reported by CreditAccess Grameen at 31 March 2027.

Locked: 2026-11-05 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2027-05-05 — CreditAccess Grameen Limited Q4 FY2027 results
Source: CreditAccess Grameen Q4 FY2027 investor presentation and results (NSE: CREDITACC)
Scored by: Binary: YES if AUM at 31 March 2027 as reported by the company (the line that was INR 30,946 crore at 30 September 2026 and INR 29,590 crore at 31 March 2026) is INR 33,500 crore or more; NO if below. Explicitly NOT profit, NOT on-book loans and NOT disbursements.

The guidance forecasts a recovery. The lock forecasts the business.