Cathode tonnes, not the copper price.

We lock a binary: KGHM Polska Miedź S.A.'s electrolytic copper production for calendar 2026 is 575 thousand tonnes or more. Confidence 91%.

The budget is 589 kt. The threshold sits 14 kt, about 2.4%, below it. On the unbanked fourth quarter the buffer is about 9.5%, which is where a smelter outage would land.

January to September produced 440.9 kt, up from 421.0 kt a year earlier. Reaching 575 kt needs 134.1 kt in the fourth quarter: 44.7 kt a month, against 48.7 kt in September. Reaching the budget would need 148.1 kt, or about 49.4 kt a month.

Smelter output is steady but exposed to planned and unplanned shutdowns. The lock fails on a material stoppage at the Głogów or Legnica smelters or a shortfall in purchased concentrate feed.

KGHM reports at least three copper volumes: Group payable copper (which includes KGHM International and its share of Sierra Gorda), the parent company's copper in concentrate, and the parent company's electrolytic copper. They differ by more than 100 kt. The criterion names KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. electrolytic copper only.

First Poland lock. Copper tonnes, not the LME price, which this series does not forecast. Correlation, disclosed: Glencore copper production (P-230) is the series' other copper-volume lock; the operating risks are independent.