92% probability Athens International Airport handles at least 34.9 million passengers in 2026. Nine months delivered 27,310,164, up 4.3%; the fourth quarter needs 7,589,836, which is 2.7% below the same quarter of 2025.
Athens International Airport's September 2026 traffic release reports that since the beginning of 2026 passenger traffic reached 27.31 million (27,310,164), above 2025 levels by 4.3%. Its 2025 statistics show total traffic of 33,993,746 passengers, up 6.7%.
We lock a binary: Athens International Airport's total passenger traffic for calendar 2026, as published in its December 2026 traffic statistics, is 34,900,000 or more. Confidence 92%.
That is full-year growth of about 2.7% on 2025's 33,993,746. The company raised its own 2026 outlook at the half year from low-single-digit to mid-single-digit growth, as reported at the time; the lock sits well below that.
January to September produced 27,310,164 passengers against 26,193,309 a year earlier. The fourth quarter of 2025 therefore carried 7,800,437. Reaching 34.9 million needs 7,589,836 in the fourth quarter of 2026: a 2.7% year-on-year decline would still pass.
Growth has slowed through the year, from high single digits early on to the low single digits by September. The lock fails only on a swing of roughly six points in fourth-quarter growth: a regional conflict, an airline failure or a major disruption.
Monthly traffic figures are provisional when first published and finalised later. The criterion takes the full-year total as published in the December 2026 release, the first-published figure.
First Greece lock. A name trap worth stating: AIA Group (P-210) in this series is the Hong Kong insurer, an entirely different company. This lock is Athens International Airport S.A.
RAOSCAFF locks P-355 on 2026-11-05, before the December 2026 traffic release. Scored against total passenger traffic as published by Athens International Airport for calendar 2026.
Nine months banked at plus 4.3 percent. The last quarter can fall and still pass.