91% probability LATAM Airlines grows 2026 total ASKs by at least 7.5%. Guidance was cut on 3 November to 8.5-9.5% from 9.0-10.0%; nine months grew 8.9% and the third quarter 7.7%, so the lock tests how far the slowdown runs.
LATAM's 3Q26 results show 2026 total ASK growth guidance of 8.0-10.0% (3 Dec 2025), raised to 9.0-10.0% (4 Aug 2026) and cut to 8.5-9.5% (3 Nov 2026). ASKs were 47,926 million in 3Q26 (+7.7%) and 137,954 million in the first nine months (+8.9%).
We lock a binary: LATAM Airlines Group's total ASK growth for 2026 versus 2025, as reported by the company, is 7.5% or more. Confidence 91%.
Guidance was cut on 3 November to 8.5-9.5%. The threshold sits one percentage point below the new floor.
Capacity grew 8.9% over the first nine months but only 7.7% in the third quarter, and management trimmed the year on 3 November citing the fourth-quarter fuel environment. The question this lock asks is how far the deceleration runs.
If the fourth quarter carries roughly a quarter of the year's capacity, a 7.5% full-year figure needs fourth-quarter growth of only about 3-4%. That is an approximation: the release does not state fourth-quarter 2025 ASKs, so the exact requirement depends on that base. A miss needs a sharp cut to fourth-quarter flying.
LATAM's adjusted EBITDA guidance was cut more than once this year as jet fuel rose with the West Asia conflict. That line is a fuel-price outcome, and this series does not forecast commodity prices. Seat capacity is what management schedules.
First Chile lock. The criterion names TOTAL ASKs, not the segment ranges the company also guides (Brazil domestic, Spanish-speaking domestic, international).
RAOSCAFF locks P-356 on 2026-11-05, before the 4Q26 results. Scored against total ASK growth versus 2025 as reported by LATAM Airlines Group for calendar 2026.
Guidance cut on 3 November. The lock sits a point below the cut.