90% probability UCB grows 2026 revenue by at least 9% at constant exchange rates. The first half grew 27% at CER to EUR 4,270 million; the raised full-year guide of low-teens to mid-teens growth already implies a sharp second-half deceleration.
UCB reported H1 2026 revenue of EUR 4,270 million, up 22% (+27% at constant exchange rates), and raised its 2026 guidance: revenue is expected to grow in the low-teens to mid-teens percentage range at CER.
We lock a binary: UCB's revenue growth for 2026 at constant exchange rates, as reported by the company, is 9.0% or more. Confidence 90%.
Guidance, raised at the half year, is low-teens to mid-teens growth at CER. Reading the low end as about 11%, the threshold sits about two points below it.
The first half grew 27% at CER. A full year in the low-to-mid teens therefore requires the second half to grow far more slowly, and possibly to fall, against a tougher prior-year comparison and with net-price pressure on its leading launch flagged by management.
That makes this lock a test of whether management under-promised. The company did not state its pre-raise revenue range in the release, so the lock anchors on the raised phrase with a wider buffer, two points rather than one.
Reported growth ran five points below CER growth in the first half: 22% against 27%. A lock that did not name the basis would resolve two ways on a currency move. The criterion names revenue growth at constant exchange rates, as the guidance does, and total revenue, not net sales alone.
First Belgium lock. Correlation with the series' other pharmaceutical growth locks (Roche P-258, Sun Pharma P-313) is weak; the drivers are company-specific launches.
RAOSCAFF locks P-357 on 2026-11-05, before the FY2026 result. Scored against revenue growth at CER as reported by UCB for 2026.
The guide itself forecasts a slowdown. The lock asks whether the company under-promised.