Below the guide, because the guide is conditional.

88% probability Adani Green's operational capacity reaches at least 22,000 MW by 31 March 2027. It stood at 20,763 MW on 30 September after 1,469 MW of first-half additions; management's 4.5-5 GW target depends on a transmission corridor arriving in the fourth quarter.

Type · Prediction Lock · sub-guidance floor, renewable capacity Locked · 2026-11-05 · before the FY2027 operational update Resolves · ~2027-04-10 · AGEL provisional operational update FY2027 (NSE: ADANIGREEN) Scored · binary: operational capacity at 31 Mar 2027 >= 22,000 MW yes/no

Adani Green operational capacity at 31 March 2027 · our locked floor

22,000 MW

operational capacity, MW AC · 20,763 MW at 30 Sep 2026

Adani Green's Q2 FY27 presentation reports operational capacity of 20,763 MW, with 621 MW added in the quarter; its FY26 operational update reported 19,294 MW. On the Q2 call management said that if the transmission corridor comes by the end of the fourth quarter, it will be in a position to commission 4.5 to 5 gigawatts.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Adani Green reaches at least 22,000 MW by 31 March 2027 — P = 0.88.

We lock a binary: Adani Green Energy's operational renewable capacity at 31 March 2027, as published in its operational update, is 22,000 MW or more. Confidence 88%, the lowest in this tranche, because the outcome depends on infrastructure the company does not build.

That is 2,706 MW of additions for the year, about 40% below the 4.5 GW low end of management's target.

— 2 · A conditional guide

The target needs a corridor someone else builds.

Management framed its 4.5-5 GW target as conditional: it can be delivered if the transmission corridor for its Khavda capacity arrives by the end of the fourth quarter. A target that depends on third-party transmission is not one to anchor on directly.

So the floor sits well below it, and says so: a SUB-GUIDANCE FLOOR. The first half added 1,469 MW (from 19,294 MW to 20,763 MW). Reaching 22,000 MW needs 1,237 MW in the second half, 84% of the first half's pace. It fails if the corridor slips into FY2028 and additions elsewhere stall.

— 3 · What the numbers mean

A trailing-year figure in the deck.

The second-quarter presentation describes a greenfield addition of 4,083 MW. That is a trailing twelve-month figure, not the first half: first-half additions were 1,469 MW. The criterion names operational capacity in MW AC at 31 March 2027, not battery storage MWh and not contracted or under-construction capacity.

Correlation, disclosed: Power Grid (P-335) builds the transmission corridors this lock depends on, and NTPC (P-318) shares Indian power-sector exposure.

Locked on 2026-11-05 — scored against Adani Green Energy's reported operational capacity at 31 March 2027.

RAOSCAFF locks P-359 on 2026-11-05, before the FY2027 operational update. Scored against operational capacity as published by Adani Green Energy at 31 March 2027.

Locked: 2026-11-05 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2027-04-10 — Adani Green Energy Limited provisional operational update for FY2027
Source: Adani Green Energy Limited FY2027 provisional operational update or Q4 FY2027 results presentation (NSE: ADANIGREEN)
Scored by: Binary: YES if operational renewable capacity at 31 March 2027 (MW AC; the measure that was 20,763 MW at 30 September 2026 and 19,294 MW at 31 March 2026) is 22,000 MW or more; NO if below. Explicitly NOT battery storage MWh, NOT contracted or under-construction capacity.

A target that depends on someone else's transmission line is not a target to anchor on.