RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-36
Prediction Series · P-36

Palantir Q2 2026 — ≥$1.797B floor, locked at 90%.

90% probability Palantir Q2 2026 reported revenue is ≥$1.797B — its own guidance floor. Q1 2026 printed $1.633B (+85% YoY); the $1.797–1.801B guide is the tightest range Palantir has issued. Resolves Aug 10 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI Locked · 2026-06-21 · before Q2 2026 results Resolves · 2026-08-10 · Palantir Q2 2026 press release / 8-K Scored · binary: Q2 2026 reported revenue ≥$1.797B yes/no
Palantir Q2 2026 revenue guidance floor
$1.797B
guidance range $1.797–1.801B · Q1 actual $1.633B (+85% YoY)

Palantir Q1 2026 earnings: Q2 2026 guide $1.797–1.801B. Q1 2026 revenue $1.633B (+85% YoY). Floor $1.797B = +10% QoQ on Q1 actual. Source: Palantir Q2 2026 press release / 8-K (investors.palantir.com + SEC EDGAR), confirmed report date Aug 10 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Q2 2026 revenue ≥$1.797B — P = 0.90.

We lock a binary claim: Palantir Q2 2026 reported total revenue (as in the Aug 10 2026 press release / 8-K) is ≥$1,797,000,000. Confidence 90%. This is Palantir's own guidance floor — the tightest revenue guidance range the company has issued.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

$1.633B Q1 print; guidance floor +10% QoQ; Palantir's $1.797–1.801B range is a tight commitment.

Palantir issued its Q2 2026 guidance of $1.797–1.801B (a $4M spread — the tightest in its history) at the Q1 2026 earnings call (investors.palantir.com). Q1 2026 revenue of $1.633B was +85% YoY, driven by US commercial and government AI demand. The $1.797B floor requires +10% QoQ — consistent with recent quarterly growth momentum. Resolves against the total revenue line in Palantir's Q2 2026 press release / 8-K on Aug 10 2026 (confirmed report date, per company calendar).

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Palantir's Q2 2026 reported total revenue in the Aug 10 press release / 8-K.

RAOSCAFF locks P-36 on 2026-06-21. Floor call — we score strictly against the ≥$1.797B threshold; upside is open.

Locked
2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
2026-08-10 — Palantir Q2 2026 earnings press release / 8-K (investors.palantir.com + SEC EDGAR)
Source
Palantir Technologies Q2 2026 press release, total revenue line (8-K, Aug 10 2026)
Scored by
Binary: YES if reported Q2 2026 revenue ≥$1,797,000,000; NO otherwise

Floor call — upside is not scored; we score only against the ≥$1.797B threshold.