A budget promise, scored against the accounts.

89% probability India's central government spends at least INR 11,30,000 crore on capital account in FY2026-27, against a Budget Estimate of INR 12,21,821 crore. The previous year's Revised Estimate came in below its own Budget Estimate; the lock allows for that and more.

Type · Prediction Lock · policy quantity, public finance Locked · 2026-11-05 · before the FY2026-27 accounts Resolves · ~2027-05-31 · Controller General of Accounts provisional actuals for FY2026-27 Scored · binary: central capital expenditure FY2026-27 >= INR 11,30,000 crore yes/no

Central government capex FY2026-27 · our locked floor

INR 11.3 lakh cr

capital expenditure, CGA actuals · vs INR 12.22 lakh cr budgeted

Budget at a Glance 2026-27 puts total capital expenditure at INR 12,21,821 crore, with effective capital expenditure of INR 17,14,523 crore. Expenditure on capital account was INR 10,51,953 crore in FY2024-25 (actual), INR 11,21,090 crore budgeted and INR 10,95,755 crore revised for FY2025-26.

— 1 · The Locked Call

India's FY2026-27 capex is at least INR 11.3 lakh crore — P = 0.89.

We lock a binary: the Government of India's capital expenditure for FY2026-27, as reported in the Controller General of Accounts' provisional actuals, is INR 11,30,000 crore or more. Confidence 89%.

The Budget Estimate is INR 12,21,821 crore. The threshold sits about 7.5% below it and about 3.1% above the FY2025-26 Revised Estimate of INR 10,95,755 crore.

— 2 · Why the buffer is not small

Last year's revision came in below its own budget.

FY2025-26 budgeted INR 11,21,090 crore of capital expenditure and revised that down to INR 10,95,755 crore, about 2.3% lower. Capital spending is the line governments trim when they need to hold a fiscal deficit target, and this year carries an energy-price shock that pressures both revenue and subsidies.

The lock tolerates a shortfall of about 7.5% against the budget, three times last year's revision. It fails only if the centre cuts capital spending hard in the second half to defend the deficit.

— 3 · Capex, not effective capex

Two capex numbers, INR 4.9 lakh crore apart.

The budget publishes two figures: capital expenditure (INR 12,21,821 crore) and effective capital expenditure (INR 17,14,523 crore), which adds grants to states for creating capital assets. The criterion names capital expenditure on capital account, as reported by the CGA, and rules out effective capex.

The February 2027 Revised Estimate is not the resolver: it is a forecast. The CGA provisional actual, published around the end of May, is the outcome. A policy quantity, scored against official accounts, not a market price. Correlation, disclosed: India GDP (P-22), GST (P-172) and Larsen & Toubro (P-297) share exposure to public investment.

Locked on 2026-11-05 — scored against CGA provisional actuals for FY2026-27 central capital expenditure.

RAOSCAFF locks P-360 on 2026-11-05, before the FY2026-27 accounts. Scored against Government of India capital expenditure as published by the Controller General of Accounts in its provisional actuals for FY2026-27.

Locked: 2026-11-05 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2027-05-31 — Controller General of Accounts provisional actuals for March 2027 (FY2026-27)
Source: Controller General of Accounts, Union Government Accounts at a glance, provisional actuals for FY2026-27 (cga.nic.in)
Scored by: Binary: YES if Government of India capital expenditure (on capital account) for FY2026-27 in the CGA provisional actuals is INR 11,30,000 crore or more; NO if below. Explicitly NOT effective capital expenditure and NOT the Revised Estimate in the February 2027 budget.

The Revised Estimate is a forecast. The accounts are the outcome.