Nintendo Switch 2 — ≥22.0M cumulative units shipped at Q1 FY27, locked at 72%.

72% probability Nintendo Q1 FY27 results (Aug 6 2026) show Switch 2 cumulative units shipped (sell-in) ≥22.0M. LTD at Mar 31 2026 was 19.86M; reaching 22.0M requires ~2.1M in Q1 FY27. The cushion is thin given soft early demand and a price hike dampening sell-in.

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI Locked · 2026-06-21 · before Q1 FY27 results Resolves · 2026-08-06 · Nintendo Q1 FY27 earnings / IR financial results Scored · binary: cumulative Switch 2 units shipped ≥22.0M at Q1 FY27 yes/no

Switch 2 LTD shipped at Mar 31 2026

19.86M

units shipped (sell-in) · needs +2.14M in Q1 to hit 22.0M

Nintendo Co. official FY26 Q4 / full-year results (nintendo.co.jp/ir): Switch 2 cumulative sell-in 19.86M at Mar 31 2026. FY27 full-year guide: 16.50M sell-in. Q1 FY27 bar ~22.0M implies ~2.1M incremental in the quarter — thin cushion given price-hike-dampened early demand.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Cumulative Switch 2 sell-in ≥22.0M at Q1 FY27 — P = 0.72.

We lock a binary claim: Nintendo Q1 FY27 earnings (Aug 6 2026) report cumulative Switch 2 units shipped (sell-in, Nintendo's official metric) at or above 22,000,000. Confidence 72%. The metric is sell-in (Nintendo to retailers), not sell-through (retailers to consumers).

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

19.86M at Mar 31; needs +2.1M in Q1; thin cushion against soft demand and a price hike.

Nintendo officially reported 19.86M cumulative Switch 2 sell-in at March 31 2026 (nintendo.co.jp/ir). The 22.0M threshold requires ~2.14M in Q1 FY27 (April–June 2026). Nintendo's FY27 full-year guide of 16.50M sell-in implies ~4.1M/quarter on average — suggesting Q1 alone at 2.1M is below the quarterly run-rate needed to hit the full-year target, which is modest. The risk: early 2026 demand was dampened by a price increase in key Western markets. Resolves against the cumulative units shipped figure in Nintendo's official Q1 FY27 earnings release (nintendo.co.jp/ir), Aug 6 2026.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Nintendo's official Q1 FY27 cumulative Switch 2 units shipped figure.

RAOSCAFF locks P-38 on 2026-06-21. Metric is sell-in (shipped to retail), not sell-through — consistent with Nintendo's official reporting convention.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-08-06 — Nintendo Q1 FY2027 earnings release / IR financial results (nintendo.co.jp/ir)
Source: Nintendo Co., Ltd. Q1 FY2027 earnings / IR financial results — cumulative Switch 2 units shipped (sell-in)
Scored by: Binary: YES if cumulative Switch 2 units shipped ≥22,000,000 at Q1 FY27; NO otherwise

Metric is sell-in only — Nintendo does not officially report sell-through; third-party sell-through estimates will not be used for scoring.