78% probability OpenAI officially confirms ChatGPT reached 1B weekly active users on or before Dec 31 2026. WAU was officially 900M as of Feb 27 2026; 1B requires ~+11% in ~10 months. The risk is disclosure timing — the milestone may be reached but unannounced before year-end.
OpenAI / Sam Altman officially confirmed 900M ChatGPT WAU on Feb 27 2026 (TechCrunch, Reuters). 1B WAU not yet officially stated. Requires ~+11% growth over ~10 months — likely achieved but contingent on OpenAI disclosing it. Source: official OpenAI blog or Altman keynote/statement, corroborated by Reuters.
We lock a binary claim: OpenAI officially confirms (via blog post, keynote, or named executive statement) that ChatGPT reached ≥1,000,000,000 weekly active users on or before December 31 2026. Confidence 78%. Third-party estimates do not count — this is scored against an official OpenAI disclosure.
OpenAI / Sam Altman officially confirmed 900M ChatGPT WAU on February 27 2026 (TechCrunch / Reuters). Reaching 1B requires ~+11% over ~10 months — a growth rate consistent with recent ChatGPT trajectory, and likely achieved well before year-end. The residual ~22% uncertainty is not about the user count but about whether OpenAI makes a public official disclosure of the milestone before December 31. OpenAI has been selective about timing such announcements. Resolves against an official OpenAI blog post, Sam Altman statement, or equivalent named executive disclosure corroborated by Reuters on or before Dec 31 2026.
RAOSCAFF locks P-39 on 2026-06-21. Resolution requires an official OpenAI disclosure — third-party estimates, analyst notes, or leaks do not resolve this call.
Third-party estimates, leaks, or analyst forecasts do not resolve this call — only an official OpenAI disclosure counts.