Amazon Kuiper — fewer than 1,000 on orbit at year-end, locked at 96%.

96% probability Amazon Project Kuiper has fewer than 1,000 satellites on orbit at Dec 31 2026. Current count: ~367 production sats (as of Jun 17 2026 Ariane 64 flight). Reaching 1,000 by year-end requires ~3× the first-year cadence of ~31 sats/month.

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI Locked · 2026-06-21 · ~367 production sats on orbit Resolves · 2026-12-31 · Jonathan McDowell planet4589.org Kuiper launch statistics Scored · binary: Kuiper production sats on orbit <1,000 at Dec 31 2026

Kuiper production satellites on orbit (Jun 17 2026)

~367

~31/mo first-year cadence · needs 3× pace to reach 1,000

Jonathan McDowell planet4589.org Kuiper Launch Statistics as of Jun 17 2026 (Ariane 64 flight). ~367 production sats on orbit. First-year average cadence ~31/mo. Reaching 1,000 by Dec 31 requires ~105/mo for 6 months — ~3.4× the sustained pace. FCC waived the 1,618 half-constellation milestone in Jun 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Kuiper has fewer than 1,000 sats on orbit at Dec 31 2026 — P = 0.96.

We lock a binary claim: Amazon Project Kuiper has fewer than 1,000 production satellites on orbit as of December 31 2026, per the Jonathan McDowell planet4589.org Kuiper launch statistics. Confidence 96%. The call is a structural floor, not a commentary on Kuiper's long-term trajectory.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

367 on orbit; 1,000 needs 3× cadence in 6 months; FCC already waived the 1,618 milestone.

Jonathan McDowell's planet4589.org Kuiper launch statistics (the definitive public tracker) show ~367 production Kuiper satellites on orbit as of June 17 2026 (post-Ariane 64 flight). Reaching 1,000 by December 31 requires adding ~633 satellites in ~6 months — a pace of ~105/month, roughly 3.4× the ~31/month average Amazon achieved in its first full year of production launches. The FCC waived the original 1,618 half-constellation milestone in June 2026, removing any regulatory pressure to accelerate. Resolves against the McDowell Kuiper statistics on Dec 31 2026.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Jonathan McDowell's planet4589.org Kuiper satellite count on Dec 31 2026.

RAOSCAFF locks P-40 on 2026-06-21. Resolution source is pre-committed: planet4589.org Kuiper Launch Statistics — the definitive public on-orbit tracker.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-12-31 — Jonathan McDowell Kuiper Launch Statistics (planet4589.org/space/con/kp/stats.html)
Source: Jonathan McDowell, planet4589.org Kuiper Launch Statistics — production satellites on orbit count
Scored by: Binary: YES if Kuiper production satellites on orbit < 1,000 at Dec 31 2026; NO if ≥1,000

We count production Kuiper satellites only — test satellites and non-Kuiper payloads are excluded.