Microsoft Azure Q4 FY26 — ≥39% CC growth, locked at 78%.

78% probability Microsoft Azure-and-other-cloud-services Q4 FY26 CC growth is ≥39% — meeting the low end of the company's own 39–40% guide. Q3 FY26 printed exactly 39% CC; the FQ4 guide is in-line.

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI Locked · 2026-06-21 · before Q4 FY26 results Resolves · ~2026-07-29 · Microsoft FQ4 FY26 earnings (microsoft.com/en-us/investor) Scored · binary: Azure CC growth ≥39% in Q4 FY26 yes/no

Azure Q3 FY26 CC growth (most recent print)

39%

CC · Q4 FY26 management guide 39–40% CC

Microsoft FQ3 FY26 earnings: Azure-and-other-cloud CC growth 39% (40% reported), beating 35–36% consensus. FQ4 FY26 management guide 39–40% CC (CFO call). Resolution date: official FQ4 earnings release, expected late Jul 2026 (exact date not set at lock; historical late-Jul pattern).

— 1 · The Locked Call

Azure Q4 FY26 CC growth ≥39% — P = 0.78.

We lock a binary claim: Microsoft Azure-and-other-cloud-services Q4 FY26 revenue growth in constant currency (as reported in the FQ4 FY26 earnings release) is ≥39%. Confidence 78%. This is the low end of management's own 39–40% CC guide — not a stretch.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

Q3 printed 39% CC; guide reaffirmed 39–40%; AI-driven demand sustains the floor.

Microsoft's FQ3 FY26 earnings showed Azure-and-other-cloud CC growth of 39% (40% reported), beating the 35–36% consensus. Management guided FQ4 to 39–40% CC at the CFO call (microsoft.com/en-us/investor). The floor is management's own commitment, underpinned by continued AI capacity build-out and enterprise Azure migration. Confidence at 78% (not higher) reflects the ~22% chance of a guide miss, which has happened before on timing of AI capacity availability. Resolves against the Azure CC growth figure in Microsoft's FQ4 FY26 earnings release, expected ~late Jul 2026.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Microsoft Azure CC growth in the FQ4 FY26 earnings release.

RAOSCAFF locks P-41 on 2026-06-21. Resolution date ~late Jul 2026 — exact date not yet confirmed; historical late-Jul pattern for Microsoft Q4 earnings.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2026-07-29 — Microsoft FQ4 FY26 earnings release (microsoft.com/en-us/investor; exact date not yet confirmed)
Source: Microsoft FQ4 FY26 earnings release — Azure-and-other-cloud-services CC growth figure
Scored by: Binary: YES if Azure CC growth ≥39% in Q4 FY26; NO if <39%

If Microsoft changes its CC reporting methodology, we score against the most directly comparable growth figure disclosed in the earnings release.