AWS Q2 2026 — ≥25% YoY growth, locked at 90%.

90% probability Amazon AWS Q2 2026 segment revenue grows ≥25% YoY vs the $30.9B Q2 2025 base. Q1 2026 AWS grew 28% ($37.6B — a 15-quarter high); 25% is a conservative floor below the current growth trajectory.

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI Locked · 2026-06-21 · before Q2 2026 results Resolves · ~2026-07-30 · Amazon Q2 2026 8-K segment table Scored · binary: AWS Q2 2026 YoY growth ≥25% yes/no

AWS Q1 2026 YoY growth (most recent)

28%

$37.6B · 15-quarter high · Q2 floor set at ≥25% YoY

Amazon Q1 2026 8-K: AWS segment revenue $37.6B (+28% YoY) — 15-quarter high, accelerating from Q4 2025 24%, Q3 2025 ~20%, Q2 2025 17.5%. Q2 2025 base $30.9B. Q2 2026 floor $30.9B × 1.25 = ~$38.6B. Source: Amazon Q2 2026 8-K segment table (ir.aboutamazon.com / SEC EDGAR); date ~Jul 30 2026 (historical cadence, not yet confirmed).

— 1 · The Locked Call

AWS Q2 2026 ≥25% YoY — P = 0.90.

We lock a binary claim: Amazon AWS Q2 2026 segment revenue (as reported in the Q2 2026 8-K, ~Jul 30 2026) grew ≥25% YoY versus Q2 2025's $30.9B base. Confidence 90%. A 25% floor implies ≥~$38.6B in Q2 2026 — conservative relative to the Q1 2026 28% print.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

Q1 printed 28% ($37.6B, 15-quarter high); 25% floor sits below the accelerating trend.

AWS Q1 2026 revenue of $37.6B (+28% YoY) was a 15-quarter high, accelerating for the fourth consecutive quarter (Q2 2025 17.5% → Q3 20% → Q4 24% → Q1 2026 28%). The $30.9B Q2 2025 base (Amazon Q2 2025 8-K, ir.aboutamazon.com) implies a 25% floor of ~$38.6B — slightly above Q1's $37.6B but consistent with continued AI-driven enterprise cloud migration. Resolution date ~Jul 30 2026 is based on historical Amazon Q2 earnings cadence; Amazon has not yet confirmed the exact date.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Amazon's Q2 2026 AWS segment revenue in the 8-K.

RAOSCAFF locks P-42 on 2026-06-21. Base $30.9B from the Q2 2025 8-K is pre-committed; resolution date ~Jul 30 2026 is a historical-cadence estimate, not yet confirmed by Amazon.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2026-07-30 — Amazon Q2 2026 8-K segment table (ir.aboutamazon.com / SEC EDGAR; date not yet confirmed)
Source: Amazon Q2 2026 8-K AWS segment revenue; base from Amazon Q2 2025 8-K ($30.9B)
Scored by: Binary: YES if Q2 2026 AWS revenue / $30.9B − 1 ≥ 0.25 (i.e., ≥25% YoY); NO otherwise

If Amazon restates Q2 2025 AWS revenue, we use the restated base; scoring methodology unchanged.