Apple Q3 FY2026 — ≥14% YoY at guidance floor, locked at 78%.

78% probability Apple Q3 FY2026 total revenue grows ≥14% YoY — the low end of CFO Parekh's 14–17% guide (Apr 30 2026 call). Base $94.0B → floor ~$107.2B. Resolves Jul 30 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI Locked · 2026-06-21 · before Apple Q3 FY2026 earnings Resolves · 2026-07-30 · Apple Q3 FY2026 press release / 8-K Scored · binary: Q3 FY2026 total revenue YoY growth ≥14% yes/no

Apple Q3 FY2026 revenue guidance floor

≥14% YoY

Base $94.0B (Q3 FY2025) → floor ~$107.2B · CFO guided 14–17%

Apple Q2 FY2026 earnings call (Apr 30 2026): CFO Luca Parekh guided Q3 FY2026 total revenue +14–17% YoY. Q3 FY2025 base $94.0B (Apple Q3 FY2025 8-K). Floor ~$107.2B. Source: Apple Q3 FY2026 press release / 8-K (investor.apple.com + SEC EDGAR), expected Jul 30 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Q3 FY2026 revenue ≥14% YoY growth — P = 0.78.

We lock a binary claim: Apple Q3 FY2026 total revenue (as reported in the Jul 30 2026 press release / 8-K) grew ≥14% YoY versus Q3 FY2025's $94.0B base — i.e., ≥~$107.2B. Confidence 78%. This is the company's own guidance floor set on the Apr 30 2026 earnings call.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

CFO guided 14–17%; base $94.0B; floor ~$107.2B anchored to company guidance.

Apple CFO Luca Parekh guided Q3 FY2026 total revenue +14–17% YoY on the Apr 30 2026 earnings call (investor.apple.com). Q3 FY2025 printed $94.0B (Apple Q3 FY2025 8-K); the 14% floor implies ≥~$107.2B. Services momentum, iPhone cycle, and India manufacturing diversification underpin the guidance. Confidence is 78% — not higher — because iPhone demand in key Western markets remains sensitive to macro and the guidance range is wide. Resolves against Apple's Q3 FY2026 press release / 8-K, expected Jul 30 2026.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Apple's Q3 FY2026 reported total revenue in the press release / 8-K.

RAOSCAFF locks P-46 on 2026-06-21. Base $94.0B from the Q3 FY2025 8-K. Resolution: Apple Q3 FY2026 press release / 8-K, expected Jul 30 2026.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-07-30 — Apple Q3 FY2026 press release / 8-K (investor.apple.com + SEC EDGAR)
Source: Apple Q3 FY2026 press release total revenue; base from Q3 FY2025 8-K ($94.0B)
Scored by: Binary: YES if Q3 FY2026 total revenue ≥$107.16B (i.e. $94.0B × 1.14); NO otherwise

Floor call only — the 14% low end of guidance is the scored threshold; upside is open and not scored.