88% probability AMD Q2 2026 total revenue is ≥$10.9B — the low end of its $11.2B ±$300M guidance range (set May 5 2026 Q1 call). AMD has beaten guidance in recent quarters driven by data-center MI300X/MI325X GPU demand. Resolves Aug 4 2026.
AMD Q1 2026 earnings call (May 5 2026, ir.amd.com): Q2 2026 revenue guide $11.2B ±$300M → low end $10.9B, high end $11.5B. Source: AMD Q2 2026 press release / 8-K (ir.amd.com + SEC EDGAR), confirmed report date Aug 4 2026.
We lock a binary claim: AMD Q2 2026 total revenue (as reported in the Aug 4 2026 press release / 8-K) is ≥$10,900,000,000. Confidence 88%. This is the low end of AMD's own $11.2B ±$300M guidance range issued at the Q1 2026 earnings call (May 5 2026).
AMD guided Q2 2026 to $11.2B ±$300M (low end $10.9B) at the May 5 2026 Q1 earnings call (ir.amd.com). Data-center GPU revenue — driven by MI300X/MI325X accelerators for AI training and inference — has been the primary growth engine for the past four quarters; AMD beat guidance in each of those quarters. The $10.9B floor is management's own conservative anchor. Resolves against the total net revenue line in AMD's Q2 2026 press release / 8-K on Aug 4 2026 (confirmed date).
RAOSCAFF locks P-47 on 2026-06-21. Report date Aug 4 2026 is confirmed per AMD investor calendar (ir.amd.com).
Floor call — upside is open and not scored; we score only against the ≥$10.9B threshold.