Saxony-Anhalt election — AfD largest party by vote share, locked at 88%.

88% probability the AfD finishes first by certified vote share in the Sep 6 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election. PolitPro aggregate (Jun 21 2026): AfD ~41% vs CDU ~25% — a ~16.5-point lead. Scored strictly against certified vote share; no coalition or seat count is included.

Type · Prediction Lock · calibrated binary Locked · 2026-06-21 · before the Sep 6 2026 election Resolves · 2026-09-06 · Saxony-Anhalt Landeswahlleiter official certified result Scored · binary: AfD finishes with the highest certified party vote share yes/no

AfD polling lead (PolitPro aggregate, Jun 21 2026)

~16.5pt

AfD ~41% vs CDU ~25% · Landeswahlleiter certified result

PolitPro aggregate as of Jun 21 2026: AfD ~41%, CDU ~25%, SPD ~8%, BSW ~7%. ~16.5-point AfD lead. Scored against Saxony-Anhalt Landeswahlleiter official certified party vote share. Non-partisan framing: criterion is vote-share plurality only — no characterisation of any party.

— 1 · The Locked Call

AfD finishes with the highest certified party vote share in Saxony-Anhalt — P = 0.88.

We lock a binary claim: The AfD receives the highest certified party vote share (Zweitstimmen) in the Sep 6 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election per the Landeswahlleiter official certified result. Confidence 88%. The criterion is vote-share plurality only — no government formation, coalition, or seat count is included in this call.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

~16.5-point polling lead; certified Landeswahlleiter result is the unambiguous source.

The PolitPro aggregate as of Jun 21 2026 shows AfD ~41% versus CDU ~25% — a ~16.5-point lead, a margin historically requiring substantial polling error to overcome. German state-election polls in 2023–2025 have generally tracked the final result within 3–5 points for leading parties, leaving the AfD's lead well outside that error band. Resolves against the official certified Zweitstimmen result published by the Saxony-Anhalt Landeswahlleiter — the definitive state electoral authority — on or after Sep 6 2026.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against the Saxony-Anhalt Landeswahlleiter official certified party vote share.

RAOSCAFF locks P-48 on 2026-06-21. Non-partisan framing throughout — criterion is certified vote-share plurality; RAOSCAFF expresses no political preference.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-09-06 — Saxony-Anhalt Landeswahlleiter official certified party vote share (wahlergebnisse.sachsen-anhalt.de or equivalent)
Source: Saxony-Anhalt Landeswahlleiter official certified Zweitstimmen result
Scored by: Binary: YES if AfD certified Zweitstimmen share is highest among all parties; NO otherwise

Non-partisan: criterion is vote-share plurality only — no characterisation of any party, no coalition inference, no seat count scored.