72% probability Canelo Alvarez defeats Christian Mbilli by any method on the Sep 12 2026 card. Scored by official WBC / BoxRec result, US Eastern Time date — a post-midnight AST Riyadh finish still resolves as Sep 12 US ET. Mbilli win or draw = NO.
Fight booked Sep 12 2026, Riyadh, WBC super-middleweight. Canelo favorite at approximately -300; Mbilli +230 (lines at lock date). No-vig implied win probability ~71% — locked at 72%. Date/timezone note: Riyadh main-event bouts frequently finish after midnight AST (= Sep 13 local), but the scored date is the card date as scheduled, US Eastern Time. Official WBC / BoxRec fight record + ESPN Boxing report.
We lock a binary claim: Canelo Alvarez defeats Christian Mbilli by any method (KO / TKO / decision / DQ) on the Sep 12 2026 card, per the official WBC / BoxRec fight record, resolved using the US Eastern Time card date. Confidence 72%. A Mbilli win or draw resolves NO. Timezone note: the card is in Riyadh; main-event bouts may finish after midnight AST (Sep 13 local), but the scored date is Sep 12 US Eastern Time — consistent with the scheduled card date.
Canelo Alvarez is the WBC super-middleweight champion and a heavy favorite at approximately -300 over Christian Mbilli (+230) at the lock date. The no-vig implied win probability is ~71%, matched to our 72% confidence. Mbilli is a credible challenger (WBC mandatory, unbeaten as of lock date), keeping this a genuine two-sided call rather than a near-certain floor. Resolves against the official WBC fight record and BoxRec result entry, corroborated by ESPN Boxing, for the Sep 12 2026 bout — using the US Eastern Time card date.
RAOSCAFF locks P-49 on 2026-06-21. Timezone pre-committed: US Eastern Time card date. A post-midnight AST finish in Riyadh does not change the scored date.
Timezone: US Eastern Time card date (Sep 12) is the scored date — a Riyadh post-midnight finish does not shift the resolution date.