97% probability Nvidia officially confirms Vera Rubin (R100) sampling or production by Dec 31 2026. May 20 2026 Q1 FY2027 call: CFO Kress stated 'Vera Rubin is now in production' (taped out, in fab, sampling lead customers) — criterion is near-satisfied at the lock date.
Nvidia Q1 FY2027 earnings call (May 20 2026, investor.nvidia.com): CFO Colette Kress and CEO Jensen Huang confirmed Vera Rubin (R100 GPU) is 'now in production' — taped out, in fab, sampling lead customers. Criterion near-satisfied at lock date. Source: Nvidia official earnings call / 8-K (investor.nvidia.com + SEC EDGAR).
We lock a binary claim: Nvidia officially confirms (via earnings call or 8-K) that Vera Rubin (R100 GPU) sampling or production has begun on or before December 31 2026. Confidence 97%. The criterion is near-satisfied at the lock date — CFO Kress stated 'Vera Rubin is now in production' on the May 20 2026 Q1 FY2027 earnings call.
Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress explicitly stated 'Vera Rubin is now in production' — taped out, in fab, and sampling lead customers — on the May 20 2026 Q1 FY2027 earnings call (investor.nvidia.com). The criterion is substantially satisfied at the lock date; the residual 3% accounts for extraordinary tail scenarios (fab disaster, Nvidia retracting the statement, or semantic ambiguity in a future 8-K). Nvidia has two or more earnings calls (Q2 and Q3 FY2027) before Dec 31 that would add further official confirmations. Resolves against the Nvidia official earnings call transcript or 8-K (investor.nvidia.com + SEC EDGAR).
RAOSCAFF locks P-52 on 2026-06-21. Criterion is near-satisfied at lock date. 3% residual reflects tail scenarios only.
Near-certain floor — the May 20 2026 CFO statement already satisfies the criterion; 97% reflects this with a 3% tail for extraordinary scenarios.