Metaplanet BTC target — sub-100k at year-end, locked at 88%.

88% probability Metaplanet (3350.T) holds fewer than 100,000 BTC at year-end 2026. ~40,177 BTC held as of Jun 21 2026; reaching 100k requires ~60k more BTC in ~6 months — roughly 4× Q1's pace. Metaplanet is actively accumulating under a funded plan; the gap is structural, not a franchise doubt.

Type · Prediction Lock · calibrated binary · Tier A Locked · 2026-06-21 · ~40,177 BTC held (bitcointreasuries.net) Resolves · 2026-12-31 · Metaplanet IR / TDnet official BTC-holdings disclosure Scored · binary: Metaplanet year-end BTC holdings < 100,000 yes/no

Metaplanet BTC held (Jun 21 2026, bitcointreasuries.net)

~40,177 BTC

~59,823 BTC gap · ~60k in 6 months ≈ 4× Q1 pace needed

bitcointreasuries.net as of Jun 21 2026: Metaplanet ~40,177 BTC. Gap to 100k target: ~59,823 BTC. Q1 2026 accumulation pace insufficient to close gap by year-end under disclosed capital budget. Metaplanet is actively accumulating under the '555M JPY / 100k-by-2026' plan; the call reflects structural math, not a doubt about their intent. Source: Metaplanet IR / TDnet official BTC-holdings disclosures, cross-checked vs bitcointreasuries.net.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Metaplanet year-end BTC holdings under 100,000 — P = 0.88.

We lock a binary claim: Metaplanet (Tokyo Stock Exchange: 3350.T) holds fewer than 100,000 BTC as of December 31 2026, per official IR / TDnet BTC-holdings disclosure. Confidence 88%. This is a calibrated structural-gap call — Metaplanet is actively accumulating under its '100k by year-end' plan; the call reflects the mathematics of the gap, not scepticism about the company's intent.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

~40k held; 60k gap; ~4× Q1 pace required in 6 months under a tightened capital budget.

Bitcointreasuries.net as of Jun 21 2026 shows Metaplanet holding ~40,177 BTC. Closing the ~59,823 BTC gap in approximately six months requires a sustained buying pace of ~10,000 BTC/month — roughly four times the Q1 2026 pace — and a capital commitment well beyond Metaplanet's April 2026 budget revision. Metaplanet is executing genuine accumulation under a disclosed 555M JPY / 100k-by-2026 plan; the gap is structural given available capital, not a prediction of strategic abandonment. Resolves against the official Metaplanet BTC-holdings disclosure filed via TDnet / Metaplanet IR, cross-checked vs bitcointreasuries.net, on or around Dec 31 2026.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Metaplanet official IR / TDnet BTC-holdings disclosure at Dec 31 2026.

RAOSCAFF locks P-53 on 2026-06-21. The call is a structural-gap assessment — Metaplanet is actively accumulating; the gap to 100k is the basis, not a strategic critique.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-12-31 — Metaplanet IR / TDnet official BTC-holdings disclosure, cross-checked vs bitcointreasuries.net
Source: Metaplanet (3350.T) official IR / TDnet BTC-holdings disclosure; bitcointreasuries.net corroboration
Scored by: Binary: YES if Metaplanet official year-end BTC holdings < 100,000; NO if ≥100,000

If Metaplanet files a BTC-holdings disclosure on or before Dec 31 2026 showing ≥100,000 BTC, this resolves NO — the official IR filing governs over third-party trackers.