US spot-ETH ETF flows — cumulative positive at year-end, locked at 96%.

96% probability US spot-ETH ETFs show positive cumulative net inflows since inception (Farside grand total > 0) as of Dec 31 2026. Cumulative inflows ~+$11.2B at mid-Jun 2026. The +$11B buffer far exceeds typical weekly outflow volatility (~$30–170M/week).

Type · Prediction Lock · calibrated binary Locked · 2026-06-21 · cumulative since-inception ETH-ETF inflows ~+$11.2B Resolves · 2026-12-31 · Farside Investors ETH ETF cumulative table Scored · binary: Farside ETH ETF grand total > 0 at Dec 31 2026 yes/no

US spot-ETH ETF cumulative net inflows (mid-Jun 2026)

~+$11.2B

since inception · Farside grand total · outflows ~$30–170M/wk

Farside Investors ETH ETF cumulative table (farside.co.uk/ethereum-etf-flow-all-data), cross-checked vs SoSoValue US-ETH-spot dashboard: cumulative net inflows ~+$11.2B as of mid-Jun 2026 (~+$12.5B Jan, ~+$11.6B Mar, ~+$11.2B Jun). Weekly outflow episodes: ~$30–170M. Buffer: ~$11B vs ~$170M/wk worst-case outflow ≈ 65+ weeks to flip negative. Source: Farside Investors ETH ETF cumulative table, Dec 31 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

US spot-ETH ETF cumulative net inflows positive at Dec 31 2026 — P = 0.96.

We lock a binary claim: US spot-ETH ETFs show positive cumulative net inflows since inception (Farside Investors ETH ETF grand total > $0) as of December 31 2026. Confidence 96%. The resolution source is pre-committed: Farside Investors ETH ETF cumulative flow table (farside.co.uk), cross-checked vs SoSoValue.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

~+$11.2B buffer; worst-case weekly outflow ~$170M; 65+ consecutive outflow weeks needed to flip negative.

Farside Investors' ETH ETF cumulative table shows ~+$11.2B in since-inception net inflows as of mid-Jun 2026 — confirmed positive in Jan (~+$12.5B), Mar (~+$11.6B), and Jun (~+$11.2B). The worst observed weekly outflow episode is approximately $170M; at that pace, flipping the cumulative total negative would require 65+ consecutive weeks of maximum outflows — an implausible scenario over the remaining 6-month window. Resolves against the Farside Investors ETH ETF cumulative grand total as of Dec 31 2026, with SoSoValue as a cross-check.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Farside Investors ETH ETF cumulative grand total at Dec 31 2026.

RAOSCAFF locks P-54 on 2026-06-21. Resolution source pre-committed: Farside Investors ETH ETF cumulative table, cross-checked vs SoSoValue. Threshold is strictly > $0.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-12-31 — Farside Investors ETH ETF cumulative flow table (farside.co.uk/ethereum-etf-flow-all-data)
Source: Farside Investors ETH ETF cumulative grand total; SoSoValue US-ETH-spot dashboard as cross-check
Scored by: Binary: YES if Farside ETH ETF cumulative grand total > $0 at Dec 31 2026; NO if ≤$0

If Farside Investors ceases publishing by Dec 31 2026, SoSoValue US-ETH-spot cumulative total becomes the primary resolution source.