85% probability Mario Kart World lifetime cumulative sell-in units exceed 15M per Nintendo's Q1 FY27 software unit-sales (cumulative) table, expected early August 2026. 14.70M at Mar 31 2026; ~0.67M added the prior quarter — the title was on pace to surpass 15M by Jun 30.
Nintendo FY26 annual earnings (Mar 31 2026, nintendo.co.jp/ir): Mario Kart World lifetime cumulative sell-in = 14.70M. Prior quarter added ~0.67M; quarterly run rate and Switch 2 launch-window demand support the 15M threshold by Q1 FY27. Source: Nintendo Q1 FY27 software unit-sales (cumulative) table, nintendo.co.jp/ir, expected early Aug 2026 (verify exact date in Nintendo IR calendar).
We lock a binary claim: Mario Kart World lifetime cumulative sell-in units exceed 15,000,000 as reported in Nintendo's Q1 FY27 software unit-sales (cumulative) table (nintendo.co.jp/ir), expected early August 2026 — verify the exact date in the Nintendo IR earnings calendar. Confidence 85%. Base: 14.70M at Mar 31 2026 (Nintendo FY26 annual earnings).
Nintendo's FY26 annual earnings reported Mario Kart World at 14.70M lifetime cumulative sell-in. The prior quarter added approximately 0.67M — leaving a gap of only ~0.30M to the 15M threshold. As Mario Kart World is a launch-window title for Nintendo Switch 2, Q1 FY27 (Apr–Jun 2026) is expected to carry elevated demand; even a conservative ~0.30M quarter closes the gap. Resolves against the Nintendo Q1 FY27 software unit-sales (cumulative) table at nintendo.co.jp/ir, expected early August 2026 (exact date to be verified in the Nintendo IR earnings calendar).
RAOSCAFF locks P-55 on 2026-06-21. Base 14.70M from Nintendo FY26 annual earnings (Mar 31 2026). Resolution: Nintendo Q1 FY27 software unit-sales (cumulative) table, expected early August 2026.
Sell-in (units shipped to retail) is the scored metric — Nintendo's official IR table governs; third-party trackers are corroborative only.