ARC Prize 2026 Grand Prize — unclaimed by competition close, locked at 82%.

We lock a binary claim: The 2026 ARC Prize Grand Prize goes unclaimed — no team meets the official 2026 Grand Prize winning threshold on the ARC-AGI-2 private evaluation set (under Kaggle efficiency constraints) by competition close, approximately early November 2026 (verify exact date at arcprize.org). Confidence 82%. The scored criterion is tied to the official 2026 Grand Prize threshold and award — not to the public leaderboard score alone.

In the 2025 ARC Prize, the best constrained Kaggle submission scored approximately 24% on the private evaluation set against a Grand Prize bar of approximately 85% — an unclaimed prize and a ~61-point gap. ARC-AGI-2, the 2026 benchmark, is a harder successor task; the 2026 Grand Prize threshold is set for the 2026 edition. Despite rapid progress in reasoning models, the combination of the harder benchmark, Kaggle efficiency constraints, and the private evaluation set creates a structurally wide gap to the Grand Prize bar. Resolves against arcprize.org official Grand Prize award announcement and the final Kaggle leaderboard at competition close (~early November 2026 — verify exact date at arcprize.org).