USDT #1 stablecoin — largest by market cap at year-end, locked at 98%.

98% probability USDT (Tether) is the #1 stablecoin by market cap on the DefiLlama leaderboard and CoinGecko stablecoins category at Dec 31 2026. USDT ~$186-189B (~60% share) vs #2 USDC ~$75B — a 2.5x+ structural lead.

Type · Prediction Lock · calibrated binary · Tier A Locked · 2026-06-21 · USDT ~$186-189B, USDC #2 ~$75B Resolves · 2026-12-31 · DefiLlama stablecoin leaderboard; cross-check CoinGecko stablecoins category Scored · binary: USDT is #1 stablecoin by market cap yes/no

USDT market cap vs #2 USDC (Jun 21 2026)

~$186-189B

USDC #2 ~$75B · USDT lead ~2.5x+ · ~60% stablecoin share

DefiLlama stablecoin leaderboard (defillama.com/stablecoins) as of Jun 21 2026: USDT #1 at ~$186-189B (~60% share); USDC #2 at ~$75B. 2.5x+ structural lead — USDC would need to more than double in 6 months, while USDT contracts, to flip #1. Cross-check: CoinGecko stablecoins category. Source: DefiLlama stablecoin leaderboard + CoinGecko stablecoins category at Dec 31 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

USDT #1 stablecoin by market cap on DefiLlama at Dec 31 2026 — P = 0.98.

We lock a binary claim: USDT (Tether) is the #1 ranked stablecoin by market cap on the DefiLlama stablecoin leaderboard (defillama.com/stablecoins) at December 31 2026, cross-checked vs CoinGecko stablecoins category. Confidence 98%. USDT holds approximately 60% stablecoin market share at the lock date — a 2.5x+ structural lead over #2 USDC.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

USDT ~$186-189B vs USDC ~$75B; a 2.5x+ lead requires an unprecedented structural reversal in 6 months.

DefiLlama shows USDT at approximately $186-189B (~60% of total stablecoin market cap) versus USDC at approximately $75B — a structural lead of 2.5x+. For USDC to claim #1 by year-end, it would need to roughly double in absolute terms while USDT contracts sharply — an unprecedented pace given USDC's recent growth trajectory. The residual 2% accounts for extraordinary tail scenarios (Tether regulatory action, a major USDT depeg event, or sudden USDC mass-adoption catalyst). Resolves against DefiLlama stablecoin leaderboard, cross-checked vs CoinGecko stablecoins category, at December 31 2026.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against DefiLlama stablecoin leaderboard at Dec 31 2026, cross-checked vs CoinGecko.

RAOSCAFF locks P-62 on 2026-06-21. Primary source: DefiLlama stablecoin leaderboard; cross-check: CoinGecko stablecoins category. 2% residual = tail scenarios only.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-12-31 — DefiLlama stablecoin leaderboard (defillama.com/stablecoins); cross-check CoinGecko stablecoins category
Source: DefiLlama stablecoin leaderboard market-cap rank; CoinGecko stablecoins category as cross-check
Scored by: Binary: YES if USDT is ranked #1 by market cap on DefiLlama stablecoin leaderboard at Dec 31 2026; NO otherwise

If DefiLlama ceases publishing by Dec 31 2026, CoinGecko stablecoins category becomes the primary resolution source.