Fusion Q>1 in 2026 — no independently-verified scientific net energy gain, locked at 96%.

96% probability no private fusion device achieves independently-verified (peer-reviewed / third-party-confirmed) scientific net energy gain (Q>1, plasma/scientific Q, not wall-plug) during calendar 2026. SPARC first plasma: 2027. Helion grid: 2028. TAE: end-of-decade. No credible Q>1 path exists in 2026 per public roadmaps.

Type · Prediction Lock · calibrated binary · Tier A Locked · 2026-06-21 · SPARC/Helion/TAE 2026 roadmaps reviewed Resolves · 2026-12-31 · company announcements + IEEE Spectrum / ANS Nuclear Newswire / Nature News Scored · binary: no independently-verified scientific Q>1 by Dec 31 2026 yes/no

SPARC first-plasma milestone (public roadmap, Jun 2026)

2027

Helion grid 2028 · TAE end-of-decade · no 2026 Q>1 path in public roadmaps

Public fusion roadmaps as of Jun 2026: Commonwealth Fusion (SPARC) first plasma slipped to 2027 (Science Advances / Nature reporting); Helion Energy commercial grid 2028 (PPA with Microsoft); TAE Technologies end-of-decade. Scored metric: scientific Q (plasma energy gain, not wall-plug efficiency) — independently verified by peer-reviewed publication or credible third-party assessment. Sources: IEEE Spectrum, ANS Nuclear Newswire, Nature News; company announcements. Resolution: Dec 31 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

No private fusion device achieves independently-verified scientific Q>1 in 2026 — P = 0.96.

We lock a binary claim: No private fusion device publicly demonstrates independently-verified (peer-reviewed or credible third-party-confirmed) scientific net energy gain (Q>1 — plasma/scientific Q, not wall-plug efficiency) during calendar year 2026, per company announcements and credible scientific press (IEEE Spectrum, ANS Nuclear Newswire, Nature News). Confidence 96%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

SPARC first plasma 2027; Helion grid 2028; TAE end-of-decade; no credible Q>1 path exists in public roadmaps.

As of June 2026, no private fusion company has a credible 2026 timeline for scientific Q>1. Commonwealth Fusion Systems (SPARC) has slipped first plasma to 2027 per Nature and Science Advances reporting. Helion Energy's fusion demonstrator is on a path to commercial grid power in 2028. TAE Technologies targets end-of-decade. The 4% residual accounts for a surprise announcement from an unforeseen actor or an internal company result that does not meet the independent-verification bar but gets characterised as Q>1 in press. The scored criterion requires independent verification — peer review or credible third-party confirmation — not a company press release alone. Resolves Dec 31 2026.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against company announcements + IEEE Spectrum / ANS Nuclear Newswire / Nature News by Dec 31 2026.

RAOSCAFF locks P-63 on 2026-06-21. Scored metric: scientific Q (plasma), independently verified — not wall-plug efficiency, not a company press release alone.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-12-31 — company announcements + IEEE Spectrum / ANS Nuclear Newswire / Nature News
Source: Company fusion milestone announcements; scientific press (IEEE Spectrum, ANS Nuclear Newswire, Nature News)
Scored by: Binary: YES if no private fusion device achieves independently-verified scientific Q>1 by Dec 31 2026; NO if any private device achieves such a result with independent verification

Independent verification is the bar — a company press release alone without peer review or credible third-party confirmation does not satisfy the NO criterion.