DraftKings FY2026 — $6.5B–$6.9B guidance band, locked at 85%.

85% probability DraftKings FY2026 total revenue lands inside its $6.5B–$6.9B guidance band, per the FY2026 10-K (~Feb 2027). Guidance midpoint $6.7B; reaffirmed at Q1 2026 release. Resolves ~Feb 2027.

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI Locked · 2026-06-21 · before DraftKings FY2026 results Resolves · ~Feb 2027 · DraftKings FY2026 10-K total-revenue line, SEC EDGAR Scored · binary: FY2026 total revenue inside $6.5B–$6.9B band yes/no

DraftKings FY2026 revenue guidance

$6.5B–$6.9B

midpoint $6.7B · reaffirmed Q1 2026 · resolves ~Feb 2027 via 10-K

DraftKings Q1 2026 earnings release (reaffirmed guidance): FY2026 total revenue $6.5B–$6.9B, midpoint $6.7B. Guidance held consistent since initial FY2026 issuance; reaffirmed at the Q1 2026 release. Source: DraftKings FY2026 10-K total-revenue line, SEC EDGAR; expected ~February 2027 (estimated from historical annual report cadence).

— 1 · The Locked Call

DraftKings FY2026 total revenue inside $6.5B–$6.9B band — P = 0.85.

We lock a binary claim: DraftKings FY2026 total revenue (as reported in the FY2026 10-K total-revenue line, SEC EDGAR, ~February 2027) is within management's issued $6.5B–$6.9B guidance band. Confidence 85%. The band is management's own committed range, reaffirmed at the Q1 2026 earnings release.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

$6.5B–$6.9B guidance reaffirmed at Q1 2026; OSB market expansion and NFL/college seasonality support the band.

DraftKings issued and reaffirmed $6.5B–$6.9B (midpoint $6.7B) FY2026 total revenue guidance at the Q1 2026 earnings release. The online sports betting (OSB) market continues to expand via new state launches, while NFL and college football seasonality (Q3–Q4 2026) underpins the H2 revenue concentration. Confidence is 85% — not higher — because sports-betting revenue is sensitive to hold rate volatility and promotional intensity, and a miss in either direction (macro surprise or competitor promotional war) could push results outside the band. Resolves against the DraftKings FY2026 10-K total-revenue line, SEC EDGAR, expected approximately February 2027 (estimated from historical annual cadence).

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against DraftKings FY2026 10-K total-revenue line, SEC EDGAR, ~Feb 2027.

RAOSCAFF locks P-64 on 2026-06-21. Resolution ~Feb 2027 is a historical-cadence estimate; the actual 10-K filing date governs.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~Feb 2027 (estimated) — DraftKings FY2026 10-K total-revenue line, SEC EDGAR
Source: DraftKings FY2026 10-K total revenue; guidance from Q1 2026 earnings release
Scored by: Binary: YES if FY2026 total revenue ≥$6.5B AND ≤$6.9B per 10-K; NO if below $6.5B or above $6.9B

Both the floor ($6.5B) and the ceiling ($6.9B) are active scored thresholds — an above-band beat resolves NO as well as a miss below the floor.