94% probability Micron fiscal Q3 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $32.75B — the floor of its own $33.5B ±$0.75B guidance band. Street consensus ~$34.52B, above the midpoint. Resolves Jun 24 2026 via Micron Q3 FY2026 8-K.
Micron Q3 FY2026 guidance issued at the Q2 FY2026 earnings call: $33.5B ±$0.75B; floor = $32.75B. Street consensus ~$34.52B sits above the midpoint, reflecting strong DRAM/HBM demand. Source: Micron Q3 FY2026 8-K / press release (investors.micron.com; SEC EDGAR CIK 0000723125), resolves Jun 24 2026.
We lock a binary claim: Micron fiscal Q3 2026 revenue (as reported in the Q3 FY2026 8-K / press release, investors.micron.com and SEC EDGAR CIK 0000723125, Jun 24 2026) meets or exceeds $32,750,000,000 — the low end of its own $33.5B ±$0.75B guidance band. Confidence 94%.
Micron guided $33.5B ±$0.75B for Q3 FY2026 at the Q2 call — the floor is $32.75B, a band-symmetric commitment. Street consensus at approximately $34.52B sits above the midpoint, reflecting strong high-bandwidth memory (HBM3E) and DRAM demand from AI training infrastructure. The guidance floor is management's own conservative anchor; Micron has beaten guidance in each of the prior four quarters. Confidence is 94% — not 99% — because HBM yield or supply-chain issues could pressure results toward the low end of the band. Resolves against the Micron Q3 FY2026 8-K consolidated revenue line, Jun 24 2026.
RAOSCAFF locks P-65 on 2026-06-21. Scored floor: $32.75B (= $33.5B − $0.75B, the exact guidance low end). Street consensus ~$34.52B supports high confidence.
Floor call only — the scored threshold is $32.75B (guidance low end); upside is open and not scored.