88% probability Qualcomm fiscal Q3 2026 total revenue meets or exceeds $9.2B — the low end of management's own $9.2-10.0B guidance range, issued at the Q2 FY2026 call (Apr 29 2026). Floor = guidance low end; resolves Aug 5 2026.
Qualcomm Q2 FY2026 earnings call (Apr 29 2026, investor.qualcomm.com): Q3 FY2026 total revenue guidance $9.2-10.0B; floor = $9.2B. Qualcomm's QCT (Snapdragon AI mobile/PC/auto) and QTL (licensing) segments underpin the range. Source: Qualcomm Q3 FY2026 8-K / earnings release (investor.qualcomm.com), resolves Aug 5 2026.
We lock a binary claim: Qualcomm fiscal Q3 2026 total revenue (as reported in the Q3 FY2026 8-K / earnings release, investor.qualcomm.com, Aug 5 2026) meets or exceeds $9,200,000,000 — the low end of its own $9.2-10.0B guidance range issued at the Q2 FY2026 call. Confidence 88%.
Qualcomm issued $9.2-10.0B guidance for Q3 FY2026 at its April 29 2026 Q2 earnings call — the floor is management's own stated minimum. QCT (Snapdragon AI mobile, AI-PC, automotive) and QTL (licensing) have both shown consistent seasonal demand; the AI-PC Snapdragon X Elite ramp adds an incremental tailwind. Qualcomm has beaten its issued guidance low end in each of the prior five quarters. Confidence is 88% — not higher — because a material China demand pullback or inventory correction could test the floor. Resolves against the Qualcomm Q3 FY2026 8-K total revenue line, Aug 5 2026.
RAOSCAFF locks P-67 on 2026-06-21. Scored floor: $9.2B (guidance low end, issued Apr 29 2026). Floor call only — upside is open.
Floor call — scored threshold is $9.2B (guidance low end); upside is open and not scored.