Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S — ≥$565M guidance floor, locked at 82%.

82% probability Coinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue meets or exceeds $565M — the low end of the company's own $565-645M Q2 guidance from the Q1 2026 shareholder letter. Resolves on the Q2 2026 earnings print (date TBC, ~early Aug 2026).

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI Locked · 2026-06-21 · before Coinbase Q2 2026 earnings Resolves · On Coinbase Q2 2026 earnings print (date TBC, ~early Aug 2026) · Coinbase Q2 2026 shareholder letter / 8-K (SEC EDGAR) Scored · binary: Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥$565M yes/no

Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S guidance range

$565M–$645M

floor $565M · from Q1 2026 shareholder letter · resolves on Q2 earnings print

Coinbase Q1 2026 shareholder letter: Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue guidance $565-645M; floor = $565M. Subscription & Services includes interest income on USDC reserves, stablecoin revenue, blockchain rewards, and custody fees. Source: Coinbase Q2 2026 shareholder letter / 8-K (SEC EDGAR). Resolution: the Q2 2026 earnings print (date TBC, ~early Aug 2026 — follow Coinbase IR for confirmation); resolves on the actual print date, not a fixed calendar date.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Coinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥$565M (guidance floor) — P = 0.82.

We lock a binary claim: Coinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue (as reported in the Q2 2026 shareholder letter / 8-K, SEC EDGAR) meets or exceeds $565,000,000 — the low end of Coinbase's own $565-645M Q2 guidance from the Q1 2026 shareholder letter. Confidence 82%. Resolves on the Coinbase Q2 2026 earnings print (date TBC, ~early Aug 2026); resolution is tied to the print date, not a fixed calendar date.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

Guidance floor $565M; USDC interest + stablecoin revenue support the base; $565M is management's own committed low end.

Coinbase's Q1 2026 shareholder letter guided Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue at $565-645M. This segment includes USDC reserve interest income, stablecoin revenue, blockchain rewards, and custody fees — components with relatively high revenue visibility compared to transaction fee revenue. The $565M floor is management's own stated minimum. Confidence is 82% — not higher — because a sharp USDC circulation contraction or crypto market seizure could compress interest income. Resolution: Coinbase Q2 2026 shareholder letter / 8-K on SEC EDGAR, on the Q2 2026 earnings print date (~early Aug 2026 — follow Coinbase IR for exact scheduling).

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Coinbase Q2 2026 shareholder letter / 8-K, SEC EDGAR, on the Q2 earnings print date.

RAOSCAFF locks P-69 on 2026-06-21. Resolution is tied to the actual Q2 2026 earnings print date (~early Aug 2026, TBC); not a fixed calendar date to avoid a scheduling-shift false miss.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: On Coinbase Q2 2026 earnings print (date TBC, ~early Aug 2026) — Coinbase Q2 2026 shareholder letter / 8-K (SEC EDGAR)
Source: Coinbase Q2 2026 shareholder letter / 8-K (SEC EDGAR); guidance from Q1 2026 shareholder letter
Scored by: Binary: YES if Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥$565,000,000; NO otherwise

Resolution date is the actual Q2 2026 earnings print; ~early Aug 2026 is an estimate — follow Coinbase IR for confirmation.