93% probability Circle's reported USDC in circulation at Jun 30 2026 is ≥$70B. Live USDC ~$75B (mid-Jun 2026); Q1 2026 closed $77.0B. The $70B floor is ~$5-7B below current levels. Resolves ~Aug 11 2026 via Circle Q2 2026 8-K (SEC EDGAR, CRCL).
CoinGecko / Circle Q1 2026 8-K: USDC in circulation approximately $74.8-75.0B (mid-Jun 2026); Q1 2026 quarter-end $77.0B. $70B floor = approximately $5-7B below current live levels. Source: Circle Q2 2026 results / Form 8-K (SEC EDGAR, CRCL); expected ~Aug 11 2026 (estimated from historical Circle reporting cadence — verify at Circle IR).
We lock a binary claim: Circle's reported USDC in circulation at Q2 2026 quarter-end (June 30 2026) is at least $70,000,000,000, per the Circle Q2 2026 results / Form 8-K (SEC EDGAR, CRCL), expected ~Aug 11 2026. Confidence 93%. The scored metric is the Circle 8-K reported figure, not a real-time on-chain count.
USDC in circulation was approximately $74.8-75.0B in mid-June 2026 per CoinGecko, and Q1 2026 quarter-end was $77.0B (Circle 8-K). The $70B floor is set approximately $5-7B below current live levels — a conservative structural floor requiring a meaningful pullback to miss. Institutional Treasury and DeFi protocol demand, alongside expanding Circle-native payment rails, provide structural support. Confidence is 93% — not higher — because a sharp broad-market crypto selloff historically triggers USDC redemptions at scale. Resolves against Circle Q2 2026 8-K reported USDC in circulation figure, expected ~Aug 11 2026 (estimate — verify exact date at Circle IR).
RAOSCAFF locks P-70 on 2026-06-21. Scored metric: Circle 8-K reported figure at Jun 30 2026, not a real-time on-chain count. Resolution ~Aug 11 2026 is a cadence estimate.
The scored metric is the Circle Form 8-K official reported figure — not an on-chain or real-time aggregator reading.