RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-72
Prediction Series · P-72

Adobe FQ3 2026 — ≥$6.67B guidance floor, locked at 93%.

93% probability Adobe fiscal Q3 2026 total revenue meets or exceeds $6.67B — the floor of its own $6.67-6.72B guidance range issued Jun 11 2026. Q2 actual: $6.62B. Resolves on the Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K (~Sep 11 2026, date pending Adobe IR confirmation).

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI Locked · 2026-06-21 · before Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K Resolves · On Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K (~Sep 11 2026, date pending IR confirmation) · Adobe Investor Relations + SEC EDGAR (CIK 796343) Scored · binary: Q3 FY2026 total revenue ≥$6.67B yes/no
Adobe Q3 FY2026 guidance range (issued Jun 11 2026)
$6.67B–$6.72B
floor $6.67B · Q2 actual $6.62B · resolves on Q3 8-K

Adobe Q2 FY2026 earnings (Jun 11 2026, Adobe IR + SEC EDGAR CIK 796343): Q3 FY2026 total revenue guidance $6.67-6.72B; floor = $6.67B. Q2 FY2026 actual revenue: $6.62B. The $6.67B floor is +0.75% sequential growth from Q2. Source: Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K / press release (Adobe Investor Relations + SEC EDGAR CIK 796343), expected ~Sep 11 2026 (date pending Adobe IR confirmation — tie resolution to the 8-K event, not the placeholder date).

— 1 · The Locked Call

Adobe Q3 FY2026 total revenue ≥$6.67B (guidance floor) — P = 0.93.

We lock a binary claim: Adobe fiscal Q3 2026 total revenue (as reported in the Q3 FY2026 8-K / press release, Adobe Investor Relations + SEC EDGAR CIK 796343) meets or exceeds $6,670,000,000 — the floor of Adobe's own $6.67-6.72B guidance issued Jun 11 2026. Confidence 93%. Resolves on the Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K — the placeholder date is ~Sep 11 2026, pending Adobe IR confirmation; resolution is tied to the 8-K event.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

Guided $6.67-6.72B; Q2 actual $6.62B; Creative Cloud + Firefly AI monetisation underpin +0.75% sequential growth.

Adobe guided $6.67-6.72B for Q3 FY2026 at the Jun 11 2026 Q2 earnings — the floor is +0.75% sequential from Q2's $6.62B. Creative Cloud subscription revenue (the dominant segment) is highly recurring; Adobe Firefly generative AI features are monetising through Creative Cloud tiers and enterprise contracts. Adobe has beaten its guidance low end in each of the prior five fiscal quarters. Confidence is 93% — not higher — because the $50M band is narrow and any enterprise deal timing risk or macro headwind to the Digital Experience segment could compress results. Resolution: Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K, on the actual report date (~Sep 11 2026 placeholder — verify at Adobe IR; tie resolution to the 8-K event, not the placeholder calendar date).

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K total revenue; resolution tied to the 8-K event (~Sep 11 2026, pending Adobe IR confirmation).

RAOSCAFF locks P-72 on 2026-06-21. Scored floor: $6.67B (guidance low end issued Jun 11 2026). Resolution date follows the actual Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K publication — ~Sep 11 is a placeholder.

Locked
2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
On Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K (~Sep 11 2026, date pending Adobe IR confirmation) — Adobe Investor Relations + SEC EDGAR (CIK 796343)
Source
Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K / press release total revenue; guidance from Q2 FY2026 earnings Jun 11 2026
Scored by
Binary: YES if Q3 FY2026 total revenue ≥$6,670,000,000; NO otherwise

Resolution date is tied to the Adobe Q3 FY2026 8-K event — not the placeholder ~Sep 11 calendar date; follow Adobe IR for confirmation.