SpaceX Falcon launches 2026 — ≥120 orbital, locked at 95%.

95% probability SpaceX conducts ≥120 Falcon-family (Falcon 9 + Falcon Heavy) orbital launches in calendar 2026. ~72 by Jun 19 2026; run-rate ~155/year; company guidance ~140 — both well above the 120 floor. Scored against Wikipedia annual count; cross-check spacestatsonline.com.

Type · Prediction Lock · calibrated binary · Tier A Locked · 2026-06-21 · ~72 Falcon launches through Jun 19 2026 Resolves · 2026-12-31 · Wikipedia 'List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches' annual count; cross-check spacestatsonline.com Scored · binary: total Falcon-family orbital launches in calendar 2026 ≥120 yes/no

Falcon-family orbital launches YTD (through Jun 19 2026)

~72

run-rate ~155/yr · company guidance ~140 · 120 floor

Wikipedia 'List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches' (Jun 19 2026): approximately 71 Falcon 9 + 1 Falcon Heavy = ~72 orbital launches through Jun 19. Run-rate: ~72 / ~171 days × 365 ≈ 154-155 launches/year. SpaceX public launch guidance ~140 for 2026 — both run-rate and guidance are well above the 120 floor. Sources: Wikipedia 'List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches' (annual count); spacestatsonline.com (cross-check). Resolution: Dec 31 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

SpaceX Falcon-family orbital launches in 2026 reach ≥120 — P = 0.95.

We lock a binary claim: SpaceX conducts at least 120 Falcon-family (Falcon 9 + Falcon Heavy) orbital launches in calendar year 2026 (Jan 1 – Dec 31 2026), per the Wikipedia 'List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches' annual count, cross-checked vs spacestatsonline.com. Confidence 95%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

~72 through Jun 19; run-rate ~155; guidance ~140; the 120 floor is a structural floor ~20 launches below guidance.

SpaceX had conducted approximately 72 Falcon-family orbital launches through June 19 2026 (~71 Falcon 9 + 1 Falcon Heavy), per Wikipedia. Annualising the YTD pace yields a run-rate of approximately 155 launches/year; SpaceX's own public launch guidance is approximately 140 for 2026. The 120 floor is set roughly 20 launches below guidance and approximately 35 below the current run-rate — requiring an exceptional operational disruption (major pad stand-down, regulatory grounding, or multi-month manifest collapse) to miss. Confidence is 95% — the residual 5% covers a sustained pad outage or fleet-wide grounding. Resolves against the Wikipedia 'List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches' annual launch count at Dec 31 2026, cross-checked vs spacestatsonline.com.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Wikipedia Falcon 9/Heavy launch list annual count at Dec 31 2026; cross-check spacestatsonline.com.

RAOSCAFF locks P-74 on 2026-06-21. Scored metric: total Falcon-family (Falcon 9 + Falcon Heavy) orbital launches in calendar 2026. Suborbital or Starship launches are excluded.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-12-31 — Wikipedia 'List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches' annual count; cross-check spacestatsonline.com
Source: Wikipedia 'List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches' (annual count); spacestatsonline.com (cross-check)
Scored by: Binary: YES if total Falcon 9 + Falcon Heavy orbital launches in calendar 2026 ≥120; NO otherwise

Scored metric counts only Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy orbital launches — Starship, suborbital, or other SpaceX vehicles excluded.