SpaceX Starship H2 2026 — ≥1 integrated test flight, locked at 97%.

97% probability SpaceX conducts ≥1 integrated Starship test flight (booster + ship stack) between Jul 1 and Dec 31 2026. Flight 12 flew May 22 2026 (V3 debut); Flight 13 targeted Jul 2026; ~6-week cadence. Scored against Wikipedia Starship list + SpaceX.com/launches.

Type · Prediction Lock · calibrated binary · Tier A Locked · 2026-06-21 · Starship Flight 12 flew May 22 2026; F13 targeted Jul 2026 Resolves · 2026-12-31 · Wikipedia 'List of Starship launches' + SpaceX.com/launches Scored · binary: ≥1 integrated Starship test flight (booster + ship) Jul 1 – Dec 31 2026 yes/no

Starship Flight 12 (most recent, V3 debut)

May 22, 2026

Flight 13 targeted Jul 2026 · ~6-week cadence · 6-month window

SpaceX Starship Flight 12 launched May 22 2026 (V3 Starship debut), per Wikipedia 'List of Starship launches' and SpaceX.com/launches. Flight 13 publicly targeted for early-to-late July 2026. Trailing H1 2026 Starship cadence: approximately 6 weeks between integrated flights. The Jul 1 – Dec 31 window spans approximately 26 weeks — approximately 4 flight opportunities at the current cadence. Sources: Wikipedia 'List of Starship launches'; SpaceX.com/launches. Resolution: Dec 31 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

SpaceX conducts ≥1 integrated Starship test flight between Jul 1 and Dec 31 2026 — P = 0.97.

We lock a binary claim: SpaceX conducts at least one integrated Starship test flight (booster + ship stack, IFT-class) between July 1 2026 and December 31 2026, per Wikipedia 'List of Starship launches' and SpaceX.com/launches. Confidence 97%. Scored on a binary launch/no-launch criterion — not on mission success or any orbital parameter.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

Flight 12 May 22; F13 targeted Jul; ~6-week cadence; 26-week H2 window ≈ 4 flight opportunities — missing all would be unprecedented.

SpaceX launched Starship Flight 12 on May 22 2026 (V3 debut) and has publicly targeted Flight 13 for early-to-late July 2026. The trailing H1 2026 integrated Starship flight cadence is approximately one flight every 6 weeks. The H2 2026 window spans approximately 26 weeks, representing roughly 4 flight opportunities at the current cadence. For this call to resolve NO, SpaceX would need to ground all integrated Starship flights for at least 6 months — a duration without precedent in the post-Flight 4 era. The 3% residual covers a protracted FAA license review, extended pad repair, or vehicle design hold of that magnitude. Resolves against Wikipedia 'List of Starship launches' and SpaceX.com/launches at Dec 31 2026.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Wikipedia 'List of Starship launches' + SpaceX.com/launches at Dec 31 2026.

RAOSCAFF locks P-75 on 2026-06-21. Scored criterion: ≥1 integrated (booster + ship stack) Starship test flight between Jul 1 and Dec 31 2026. Mission success not required.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-12-31 — Wikipedia 'List of Starship launches'; SpaceX.com/launches
Source: Wikipedia 'List of Starship launches'; SpaceX.com/launches
Scored by: Binary: YES if ≥1 integrated Starship test flight (booster + ship, IFT-class) occurs Jul 1 – Dec 31 2026; NO if zero such flights in H2 2026

Mission success, orbital insertion, or payload deployment are not scored — the criterion is ≥1 integrated launch attempt between Jul 1 and Dec 31 2026.