92% probability Walmart Q2 FY2027 total net sales grow at least +3.5% YoY — a floor 0.5pt below the low end of its own +4.0–5.0% constant-currency guide. Q1 FY27 grew +5.7% CC with FX a tailwind. Resolves ~Aug 20 2026 via the Q2 FY2027 release.
Walmart guided Q2 FY2027 net sales to +4.0–5.0% constant currency at its Q1 FY2027 release; Q1 actual was +7.3% reported / +5.7% CC with a favorable FX tailwind. The +3.5% bar sits 0.5pt below the guidance low end. Source: Walmart Q2 FY2027 earnings release (corporate.walmart.com; SEC 8-K), resolves ~Aug 20 2026.
We lock a binary claim: Walmart's reported Q2 FY2027 total net sales (per its Q2 FY2027 earnings release / SEC 8-K, ~Aug 20 2026) grow at least +3.5% year-over-year — a floor set deliberately 0.5 point below the low end of management's own +4.0–5.0% constant-currency guidance. Confidence 92%.
Walmart guided Q2 FY2027 net sales to +4.0–5.0% constant currency; our scored bar is +3.5% (reported), which a favorable FX backdrop only widens. Q1 FY2027 already printed +7.3% reported / +5.7% CC, and Walmart has cleared its own net-sales guide consistently through the cycle. Confidence is 92%, not higher, because a sharp consumer pullback or an FX reversal could compress reported growth toward the bar. Resolves against the reported Q2 FY2027 total-net-sales figure, ~Aug 20 2026.
RAOSCAFF locks P-76 on 2026-06-23, before Walmart's Q2 FY2027 release. The scored floor is +3.5% YoY total net sales — below management's own +4.0–5.0% constant-currency guide — so a modest miss of the guide still resolves YES.
Floor call only — the scored threshold is +3.5% YoY; the guided +4.0–5.0% upside is open and not scored.