RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-76R
Prediction Series · P-76R

A hit inside a mixed quarter — because we scored our own criterion.

On 2026-06-23, before the release, RAOSCAFF locked a binary: Walmart's Q2 FY2027 total net sales would grow at least 3.5% year on year. On 20 August the company reported total revenue up 5.9% (+5.1% constant currency) with e-commerce up 23%, and raised full-year guidance — while missing Street expectations on US comparable sales. P-76 is a HIT on the locked metric.

Type · Resolution · binary scorecard Locked · 2026-06-23 · before the Q2 print Resolved · 2026-08-20 · Walmart Q2 FY2027 results Scored · total net sales growth ≥+3.5% yes/no
P-76 · Walmart Q2 FY2027 total net sales · locked vs actual
HIT
locked ≥+3.5% · delivered +5.9%

Walmart reported Q2 FY2027 total revenue of $187.9bn, up 5.9% (+5.1% constant currency), with net sales up about 5% in constant currency, global e-commerce up 23% and advertising up 38%. Full-year constant-currency net sales growth guidance was raised to 4.0–5.0% from 3.5–4.5%. Source: Walmart Q2 FY2027 results, 20 August 2026.

— 1 · The Score

Locked ≥+3.5%, delivered +5.9% — a hit.

We locked a binary: Walmart's Q2 FY2027 total net sales would grow at least 3.5% year on year — a floor set at the bottom of the company's own guidance range rather than at consensus. Total revenue grew 5.9%, or 5.1% in constant currency, and the company raised its full-year range. P-76 resolves as a HIT, clearing the floor by more than two points.

P-76 · locked vs actual
MeasureValue
Locked criterion (2026-06-23)Q2 FY2027 total net sales growth ≥+3.5% YoY
Actual total revenue growth+5.9%
Constant-currency+5.1%
Full-year guidanceRaised to 4.0–5.0% cc, from 3.5–4.5%
ResultHIT · cleared by ~2.4 points
— 2 · The Honest Caveat

The market called this quarter mixed. We still scored a hit — and that needs saying.

Walmart beat on earnings and revenue but MISSED Street expectations on US comparable sales, and several outlets framed the quarter as disappointing on store performance. Our locked criterion was total net sales growth, not US comps, so the verdict is a hit — but a forecast series that only reports the flattering framing is not a track record, it is marketing. So we state both: the metric we locked cleared comfortably, and the metric we did not lock disappointed. Had we locked US comps instead, this brief would read differently. Choosing the criterion in advance, in public, is precisely what makes the score meaningful.

Resolved 2026-08-20 — scored against Walmart's reported Q2 FY2027 total net sales.

RAOSCAFF locked P-76 on 2026-06-23, before the print. It is scored here against the company's reported Q2 FY2027 total net sales growth.

Locked
2026-06-23 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolved
2026-08-20 — Walmart Q2 FY2027 results
Locked criterion
Binary: Q2 FY2027 total net sales growth ≥+3.5% YoY
Actual
+5.9% reported (+5.1% constant currency)
Verdict
HIT

Scored on total net sales — the locked metric. US comparable sales, which missed Street expectations in the same quarter, were not the criterion and are disclosed here rather than omitted.