88% probability Eli Lilly's combined worldwide Mounjaro + Zepbound revenue exceeds $14.0B in Q3 2026. The tirzepatide franchise printed ~$12.8B combined in Q1 2026 (up from ~$11.7B in Q4 2025) and keeps ramping on supply normalization and label expansion. Resolves ~Oct 29 2026.
Mounjaro + Zepbound (tirzepatide) combined worldwide revenue was ~$12.8B in Q1 2026, up from ~$11.7B in Q4 2025 — a franchise still ramping on supply normalization, international launches, and indication expansion. The >$14.0B bar requires the established sequential growth trend to hold. Source: Eli Lilly Q3 2026 earnings release (investor.lilly.com; SEC 8-K), resolves ~Oct 29 2026.
We lock a binary claim: Eli Lilly's combined worldwide Mounjaro + Zepbound revenue for Q3 2026 (as reported in its Q3 2026 earnings release / SEC 8-K, ~Oct 29 2026) exceeds $14.0 billion. The criterion is the worldwide combined figure — explicitly not US-only — to avoid a geography resolution trap. Confidence 88%.
The tirzepatide franchise has compounded quarter over quarter: ~$11.7B combined in Q4 2025, ~$12.8B in Q1 2026, with supply constraints easing, international launches widening, and obesity demand still outstripping capacity. Reaching >$14.0B in Q3 asks for roughly two more quarters of the established sequential growth — not a discontinuous jump. Confidence is 88%, not higher, because a supply hiccup, a sharper-than-expected competitive (semaglutide) share shift, or pricing/rebate pressure could slow the ramp. Resolves against the combined worldwide revenue lines in Lilly's Q3 2026 release.
RAOSCAFF locks P-78 on 2026-06-23, before Lilly's Q3 2026 release. The scored figure is the combined worldwide Mounjaro + Zepbound revenue (sum of the two product lines), not US-only, against a >$14.0B threshold.
Worldwide combined figure (both products), explicitly not US-only, to remove any geography ambiguity at resolution.