82% probability UnitedHealth Group's reported full-year 2026 adjusted EPS is $18.25 or higher — the floor of the "greater than $18.25" outlook it set at the Q1 2026 release. Deliberately calibrated below 90%: UNH has revised guidance mid-year before. Resolves ~Jan 2027 via the FY2026 release.
At its Q1 2026 release (Apr 21 2026), UnitedHealth Group raised its full-year 2026 adjusted-EPS outlook to "greater than $18.25." Our scored bar is the $18.25 floor of that guidance. Confidence is held at 82% — not higher — because UNH has cut full-year guidance mid-year in prior cycles. Source: UnitedHealth Group Q4/FY2026 earnings release (SEC Form 8-K), resolves ~Jan 2027.
We lock a binary claim: UnitedHealth Group's reported full-year 2026 adjusted (net) EPS (per its Q4/FY2026 earnings release / SEC 8-K, ~Jan 2027) is $18.25 or higher — the floor of the "greater than $18.25" outlook the company set at its Q1 2026 release. Confidence 82%.
The $18.25 bar is management's own stated full-year floor, raised at the Q1 2026 release; meeting it requires the company to land at or above the bottom of its own guidance. We hold confidence at 82% rather than the 90%+ a pure guidance-floor would usually earn, because UnitedHealth has revised full-year guidance downward mid-year in prior cycles (medical-cost trend, Medicare Advantage utilization, and one-off charges are the usual culprits). This is a calibrated probability, not a near-certainty. Resolves against the reported FY2026 adjusted-EPS figure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-79 on 2026-06-23. The scored figure is UnitedHealth's reported full-year 2026 adjusted (net) EPS against a $18.25 floor — the low end of its own raised outlook. Calibrated at 82% to reflect genuine mid-year guidance-cut risk.
Calibrated floor call (82%, not 90%+) — explicitly priced for UNH's history of mid-year guidance revisions.