82% probability OPEC+ announces an August 2026 crude output quota increase (>0 bpd vs July) at its 5 Jul 2026 meeting. June added +188k bpd for July with a stated plan to keep unwinding cuts. Resolves on the OPEC press release.
At its June 2026 meeting the OPEC+ voluntary-cut group set a +188k bpd increase for July and signalled it would keep unwinding cuts through the quarter. The call is on the announced quota (not war-disrupted barrels). Source: OPEC official press release (opec.org), readout via Reuters/Rigzone; resolves ~6 Jul 2026.
We lock a binary: at its 5 Jul 2026 meeting the OPEC+ voluntary-cut group announces an August 2026 crude output quota increase greater than zero bpd versus July (scored on the announced quota, per OPEC's press release). Confidence 82%.
June delivered +188k bpd for July with an explicit plan to keep returning barrels through the quarter, so the base case is another increase. Confidence is held at 82%, not higher, because the group has paused mid-cycle before and a live regional conflict could prompt a hold. We score the announced quota, not physically disrupted flows. Resolves against OPEC's official press release, ~6 Jul 2026.
RAOSCAFF locks P-80 on 2026-06-24, before the 5 Jul OPEC+ meeting. The scored event is whether the announced August 2026 quota is higher than July's, per OPEC's press release.
Scored on the announced quota, not on war-disrupted physical barrels — to keep resolution unambiguous.