Calibrated 72% probability the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends with 14 or fewer named storms — the top of NOAA's 8–14 May outlook (70% confidence, leaning below-normal). Resolves at season end via the official NHC tally.
NOAA's 21 May 2026 outlook projected 8–14 named storms with 70% confidence, leaning below-normal; one storm (Arthur) so far. The 14 bar sits at the top of that range, so the residual risk is an above-forecast season. Source: NOAA/NHC end-of-season tally (nhc.noaa.gov); resolves 30 Nov 2026.
We lock a binary: the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends with 14 or fewer named storms (systems reaching sustained winds ≥39 mph), per the official NOAA/NHC season tally. Confidence 72%.
NOAA's May outlook gave 8–14 named storms at 70% confidence with a below-normal lean; our threshold sits at the top of that band. We hold confidence at 72% precisely because the bar is the forecast ceiling — an active late season (Aug–Oct) could push the count to 15+. A single late-season burst is the main miss path. Resolves against the official NHC count at season end.
RAOSCAFF locks P-81 on 2026-06-24, mid-season. Scored against the final NOAA/NHC count of named storms for the 2026 Atlantic season against a ≤14 threshold.
Calibrated against NOAA's own 8–14 outlook — the bar is the forecast ceiling, so this is a genuine probability, not a lock.