95% probability gold closes 2026 at or above $3,500/oz — a floor sitting ~16% below the ~$4,150/oz spot in late June 2026. A structural-floor call, not a peak chase. Resolves 31 Dec 2026 via LBMA PM / COMEX settlement.
Gold traded ~$4,150/oz on 23 Jun 2026 (COMEX/LBMA), already ~18.6% above the $3,500 floor. Clearing the floor requires gold NOT to fall ~16% by year-end. Source: LBMA Gold Price PM (lbma.org.uk) / CME COMEX gold settlement; resolves 31 Dec 2026.
We lock a binary: gold (LBMA Gold Price PM or COMEX active-month settlement) closes the last trading day of 2026 at or above $3,500 per ounce. Confidence 95%.
Gold sat ~$4,150/oz in late June 2026, already ~18.6% above the $3,500 floor; central-bank buying and rate-cut expectations underpin the level. Clearing the floor requires only that gold not fall roughly 16% by year-end — a structural floor, not a directional bet. Confidence 95%, not higher, because a sharp risk-off liquidation or a hawkish rates surprise could compress the metal. Resolves against the year-end LBMA PM / COMEX close.
RAOSCAFF locks P-83 on 2026-06-24, with gold near ~$4,150/oz. Scored against the last-trading-day-of-2026 gold close versus a $3,500 floor.
Structural floor (~16% below spot), not a peak call — the upside above $3,500 is open and not scored.