96% probability NASA's Europa Clipper completes its scheduled Earth gravity-assist flyby (~3,200 km closest approach) in early December 2026 — a long-planned, routine trajectory milestone en route to Jupiter. Resolves by 31 Dec 2026 via NASA/JPL.
Per NASA/JPL's published trajectory, Europa Clipper makes a ~3,200 km (2,000 mi) Earth gravity assist around 3 Dec 2026, a planned milestone on its 2030 Jupiter arrival path. Source: NASA/JPL Europa Clipper mission timeline (science.nasa.gov/mission/europa-clipper); resolves by 31 Dec 2026.
We lock a binary: NASA's Europa Clipper completes its scheduled Earth gravity-assist flyby (~3,200 km closest approach), planned for early December 2026, on or before 31 Dec 2026, per NASA/JPL mission updates. Confidence 96%.
The Earth flyby is a fixed point on Europa Clipper's published interplanetary trajectory (Mars 2025 → Earth 2026 → Jupiter 2030); the spacecraft is healthy and en route. Gravity-assist flybys are deterministic celestial-mechanics events, not launches subject to weather/scrub. Confidence 96%, shy of certainty, only for the residual tail of an unforeseen spacecraft anomaly. Resolves against NASA/JPL confirmation by year-end.
RAOSCAFF locks P-84 on 2026-06-24. Scored on whether Europa Clipper completes its scheduled ~December 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby by year-end, per NASA/JPL.
Resolution window set to year-end (not the exact 3 Dec date) so a few-day schedule shift can't create a false miss.