Calibrated 78% probability the 2026 calendar-year average Brent spot price settles at or above $85/bbl per EIA. H1 realized ~$96/bbl, so the H2 path is decisive but the floor has a big head start. Resolves ~Jan 2027 via EIA annual data.
EIA's June 2026 STEO forecast a full-year 2026 Brent average near $95/bbl, and the first half realized roughly $96/bbl. For the annual average to fall below $85, H2 would have to average roughly $74 or less — possible given a late-June pullback toward ~$77, but a steep ask. Source: EIA Europe Brent Spot FOB annual average + Short-Term Energy Outlook; resolves ~Jan 2027.
We lock a binary: the 2026 calendar-year average Europe Brent Spot FOB price settles at or above $85 per barrel, per EIA's annual data. Confidence 78%.
With the first half realizing roughly $96/bbl, the annual average only falls below $85 if the second half averages about $74 or less — a meaningful drop from H1. The late-June slide toward ~$77 is why this is a calibrated 78% rather than a near-lock: a sustained H2 glut (OPEC+ unwinds + soft demand) is a live miss path. Resolves against EIA's published 2026 annual Brent average.
RAOSCAFF locks P-85 on 2026-06-24. Scored against EIA's published 2026 calendar-year average Europe Brent Spot FOB price versus an $85/bbl floor.
Annual-average call (not a spot level) — H1's ~$96 gives the floor a head start; H2 is the swing.