90% probability the 2026 calendar-year average Henry Hub spot price settles at or below $4.25/MMBtu per EIA. EIA forecasts a full-year average just under $3.50 — roughly an 18% cushion below the ceiling. Resolves ~Jan 2027 via EIA annual data.
EIA's June 2026 STEO put the full-year 2026 Henry Hub average just under $3.50/MMBtu (~2% below 2025). The $4.25 ceiling sits ~18% above that forecast — a wide cushion. Source: EIA Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price annual average / Short-Term Energy Outlook (June 2026); resolves ~Jan 2027.
We lock a binary: the 2026 calendar-year average Henry Hub natural-gas spot price settles at or below $4.25 per MMBtu, per EIA's annual data. Confidence 90%.
EIA's June 2026 STEO forecasts a full-year average just under $3.50/MMBtu on ample production and storage; our ceiling of $4.25 sits roughly 18% above that. The annual average would have to run far hotter than forecast — a severe supply shock or extreme weather sustained across the year — to breach $4.25. Confidence 90% leaves room for exactly that tail. Resolves against EIA's published 2026 annual average.
RAOSCAFF locks P-86 on 2026-06-24. Scored against EIA's published 2026 calendar-year average Henry Hub spot price versus a $4.25/MMBtu ceiling.
Annual-average ceiling with a ~18% cushion below the EIA forecast — a sustained supply/weather shock is the only miss path.